Fisher Investments recaps the biggest market, political and economic news from last week, including the second estimate of US Q2 2022 GDP, eurozone money supply data and August eurozone, UK and Japanese PMIs.
In the US, the second estimate of Q2 2022 GDP was revised higher to -0.6% annualized. The August S&P Global flash Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) were 51.3 and 44.1, respectively—showing the services PMI falling further into contractionary territory. While August’s PMIs aren’t good news, we also don’t think they are reason to avoid stocks now, given stocks regularly rebound before the economy does. For more, please see our 8/24/2022 commentary: “What to Consider in August's Purchasing Managers' Indexes.” July durable goods orders were unchanged from June, missing forecasts for an increase. July new home sales declined 12.6% m/m. The National Association of Home Builders has suggested a “housing recession” is underway, but extrapolating this into a broader economic or stock market crisis is a stretch, in our view. For more, please see our 8/24/2022 commentary: “Will a ‘Housing Recession’ Spur Wider Economic Contraction?”
In the eurozone, the August S&P Global flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs were 49.7 and 50.2, respectively. July money supply (M3) increased 5.5% y/y. In the UK, the August Flash S&P Global/CIPS flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs were 46.0 and 52.5, respectively.
In Asia, data were light. Japan’s August Jibun Bank flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs were 51.0 and 49.2, respectively.
The Week Ahead:
The US, eurozone, UK and Japan release revised August PMIs, while China releases its sole estimate. The US reports August nonfarm payrolls and unemployment data. The eurozone announces August consumer prices and July unemployment figures. The UK releases July money supply (M4). Japan reports July industrial production, trade figures, retail sales and unemployment numbers.
Source for all data cited is FactSet. This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses the maximum rate applicable to non-resident institutional investors who do not benefit from double taxation treaties. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A risk of loss is involved with investments in stock markets.