Last Week In Markets: Feb 14 - Feb 18 2022

In the US, January retail sales grew 3.8% m/m and 13.0% y/y, beating expectations. January industrial production rose 1.4% m/m, ahead of estimates, while manufacturing production increased 0.2% m/m, below the consensus forecast. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index declined -0.3% m/m in January. The January Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 1.0% m/m and 9.7% y/y. Some investors worry rising PPI could mean even higher inflation ahead. However, contrary to popular belief, data show producer price changes don’t forecast subsequent consumer price changes—instead these data typically move in tandem. For more, please see our 2/15/2022 commentary, “Charts of the Day: PPI Doesn’t Lead CPI.”

In the eurozone, the second estimate of Q4 2021 GDP remained unchanged at 0.3% q/q growth, or 4.6% y/y. December industrial production rose 1.2% m/m and 1.6% y/y, beating expectations. In the UK, January retail sales rose 1.9% m/m and 9.1% y/y, more than anticipated. January core consumer prices (excluding food and energy) rose 4.4% y/y, above estimates. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1% for the three months ending in December 2021.

In Japan, the first estimate of Q4 2021 GDP showed 1.3% q/q growth (0.7% y/y), ahead of expectations. January core-core consumer prices (excluding fresh food and energy) fell 1.1% y/y. Final December industrial production matched estimates, falling 1.0% m/m but rising 2.7% y/y. Preliminary January exports and imports rose 9.6% and 39.6% y/y. In China, January consumer prices rose 0.4% m/m and 0.9% y/y, lower than expected.

The Week Ahead:

The US, UK, eurozone and Japan report preliminary February purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs). The US releases its second estimate of Q4 2021 GDP as well as January new home sales and durable goods orders. The eurozone announces January inflation data and money supply (M3).

Tip of the Week:

Fisher Investments’ offices and US markets will be closed on Monday, February 21^st in observance of Presidents’ Day.

Source for all data cited is FactSet. This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses the maximum rate applicable to non-resident institutional investors who do not benefit from double taxation treaties. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A risk of loss is involved with investments in stock markets.