Last Week In Markets: Jan 31 - Feb 04 2022

In the US, the final January Markit Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) were revised higher to 55.5 and 51.2, respectively. Readings above 50 indicate expansion. January nonfarm payrolls grew by 467,000, far exceeding the consensus estimate for 150,000. The January unemployment rate ticked up to 4.0%.

In the eurozone, the final January Markit Manufacturing and Services PMIs were revised slightly downward to 58.7 and 51.1, respectively. The first estimate of Q4 2021 GDP showed 0.3% q/q and 4.6% y/y growth, slightly lower than expected. January core consumer prices (excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) rose 2.3% y/y, higher than forecast. The December unemployment rate decreased to 7.0%, beating expectations. December retail sales fell 3.0% m/m but rose 2.0% y/y—both missing estimates. The European Central Bank left monetary policy unchanged. In the UK, the final January Markit/CIPS Manufacturing and Services PMIs were revised up to 57.3 and 54.1, respectively. M4 money supply expanded 0.1% m/m and 6.4% y/y in December. The Bank of England (BoE) raised its Bank Rate from 0.25% to 0.5% and revealed plans to gradually unwind its balance sheet holdings.

In Japan, the final January Jibun Bank Manufacturing and Services PMIs were revised to 55.4 and 47.6, respectively. Preliminary December retail sales fell 1.0% m/m but rose 1.4% y/y, both below expectations. Preliminary December industrial production fell 1.0% m/m and rose 2.7% y/y. The December unemployment rate decreased to 2.7%, better than forecast. In China, the official January NBS Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs—focused on large, state-owned firms—came in at 50.1 and 51.1, respectively.

The Week Ahead:

The US releases January inflation and trade data. The UK posts December industrial production and its first estimate of Q4 2021 GDP. China and Japan report January bank lending and money supply figures.

Source for all data cited is FactSet. This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses the maximum rate applicable to non-resident institutional investors who do not benefit from double taxation treaties. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A risk of loss is involved with investments in stock markets.