Last Week In Markets: Nov 28 - Dec 02 2022

In the US, the final November S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) was revised upwards to 47.7 (readings over 50 indicate expansion). While this is the first reading below 50 since June 2020, because PMIs measure only growth’s breadth, not its magnitude, it doesn’t necessarily mean falling output. We caution investors from drawing big conclusions from any one data point. For more, please see our 11/30/2022 commentary, “Taking Industrial America’s Temperature.” In November, nonfarm payrolls increased by 263,000 and the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.7%. The second estimate of Q3 GDP was 2.9% annualized—better than the first estimate of 2.6%.

In the UK, October money supply (M4) was flat at 0.0% m/m but grew 4.8% y/y. The final November S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI was revised higher to 46.5. In the eurozone, October money supply (M3) rose 5.1% y/y, less than forecast. The final November S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was 47.1, slightly lower than the flash estimate. The unemployment rate ticked down to 6.5% in October.

In Japan, the October unemployment rate was 2.6%. The final November Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI was revised lower to 49.0. October imports and exports rose 53.5% y/y and 25.3% y/y, respectively. Preliminary October retail sales increased 0.2% m/m and 4.3% y/y. October preliminary industrial production fell 2.6% m/m but rose 3.7% y/y. In China, the official November NBS Manufacturing and Services PMIs—focused on large, state-owned firms—came in at 48.0 and 45.1, respectively. The November Caixin Manufacturing PMI—which includes smaller businesses—was 49.4, above expectations.

The Week Ahead:

The US, UK, eurozone, and China release November Services PMIs. Japan and China report M2 money supply data. The eurozone and Japan release Q3 GDP data. China will report November consumer prices, loan growth figures and trade data.

Source for all data cited is FactSet. This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses the maximum rate applicable to non-resident institutional investors who do not benefit from double taxation treaties. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A risk of loss is involved with investments in stock markets.