Macro Minutes: 2023 Outlook: What’s Next for Markets

In our first Macro Minutes of the year, Fisher Investments’ Research Analyst Scott O’Leary shares our global market outlook for 2023 and explains why markets will likely be higher by year-end.

Key Points

• In our view, a significant recession in 2023 is unlikely as there are many offsetting factors— strong global loan growth, modest loan loss reserves at major banks and low default rates across autos, credit cards and mortgages.
• Today’s dour sentiment suggest stocks have reckoned with and pre-priced the negative news from 2022, which provides ample fuel for an upside surprise in 2023 as reality comes in better than feared.
• In addition to sentiment, various economic drivers, such as slowing inflation, and the gridlocked political landscape set the stage for a new bull market in 2023.