Fisher Investments Reviews: Last Week in Markets — September 28 - October 2

In the US, the final estimate of Q2 2026 GDP showed 2.2% annualized growth, revised up from the previous estimate of 1.5%. The September final S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) was 55.9, lower than expected. Readings above 50 indicate expansion. September nonfarm payrolls increased by 29,000, below expectations. The September unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, above consensus forecasts.

In the UK, the second estimate of Q2 2026 GDP growth was 0.5% q/q and 1.4% y/y, revised up from the previous estimates of 0.4% and 1.2% y/y respectively. The September final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was 51.9, slightly lower than expected. August money supply (M4) increased 0.4% m/m, higher than forecasts. In the eurozone, September flash consumer inflation accelerated to 3.8% y/y. September flash core consumer inflation (which excludes energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco) accelerated to 2.5% y/y. The September final S&P Manufacturing PMI was 52.9, higher than expected. The August unemployment rate was 6.4%, matching consensus forecasts.

In Japan, the September final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was 54.1, in line with estimates. August preliminary industrial production decreased 1.7% m/m and increased 3.4% y/y. The August unemployment rate rose to 2.5%, above consensus forecasts. August preliminary retail sales fell 1.2% m/m and rose 2.7% y/y, both lower than consensus estimates. August imports and exports rose 28.0% y/y and rose 19.3% y/y, respectively, both in line with consensus forecasts. In China, the September RatingDog Manufacturing and Services PMIs—which include smaller businesses—were 52.1 and 51.6, respectively, higher than expected. The September NBS Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs—focused on large, state-owned firms—were 50.1 and 50.2, respectively.

The Week Ahead

The US, UK, eurozone and Japan report September PMIs. The eurozone reports August retail sales.

Source for all data cited is FactSet. This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses the maximum rate applicable to non-resident institutional investors who do not benefit from double taxation treaties. Past performance is