Right now, times are challenging—the COVID-19 outbreak was swift, its impact global and numerous regions are still experiencing severe outbreaks. It’s natural to be concerned about how the virus could affect you, your loved ones, your community, your finances and more. We want to help relieve some of that stress by providing sound, straightforward advice on COVID-19’s market and economic impact.
Lean on our extensive investing experience and let us guide you through these challenging times. We’ve helped thousands of clients navigate bull and bear markets during our 40+ years in business. We can help you understand what is happening in markets now, what history suggests may happen going forward and what that might mean for your investments.
Come back regularly to stay up to date. Or call us at +352 2786 7320 to speak with a representative who can discuss your personal situation.
When markets started falling in late February 2020, we believe they were anticipating the economic disruption COVID-19 containment efforts would bring. GDP declines and unprecedented unemployment resulting from shutdown measures and business closures around the world have weighed heavily on economic activity.
In the US, rising COVID-19 cases have driven many states to issue new measures to slow the spread of the virus. Similarly, virus outbreaks around the globe have prompted authorities to implement targeted lockdowns and other public health measurers. While rising case counts are undoubtedly bad news from a public health perspective, we caution against drawing market conclusions from them. Investors have long been aware of the risk of a COVID-19 winter resurgence, suggesting efficient markets have pre-priced the possibility long ago. We believe the resurgence much of the world is now experiencing would need to be much worse than already feared to significantly sway markets.
We are confident the economy will eventually recover, and for investors, it’s critical to remember stocks usually rebound before recessions end. We believe this time is no exception, as stocks have generally risen since March 23. Despite this, we’ve seen widespread pessimism. This is also normal. Pessimism and skepticism continued for many years after the 2008 bear market ended—well after stocks surpassed their previous 2007 high. As legendary investor John Templeton said, bull markets are “born on pessimism,” so it shouldn’t be surprising to see the stock market rising on a dearth of optimism.
The devastation and uncertainty surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic has many investors feeling they should exit the market until things calm down. However, we’ve long believed the riskiest thing investors can do is not stay sufficiently invested in the market long enough to achieve market-like returns (or better) over time. Time in the market is critical to achieving most investors’ long-term financial goals. However, too often, investors try to time the market and end up missing some of the market’s best days. Short-term volatility is always possible and should be expected. But if you have long-term investment goals over 10, 15 or 20 years or more, deviating from your long-term investment strategy because of short-term market volatility can be dangerous. Remember, stocks’ historical long-term returns include all bear markets. Being patient and staying disciplined to your long-term investment strategy are the keys to long-term investor success.
Although some investors may think it’s better to steer clear of markets until “things calm down” or news starts to look more positive, the world rarely gives an “all clear signal.” Stocks often begin their ascent out of a correction or bear market well before bad news has subsided—pricing in a better economic future. The stock market recovery that began on March 23rd when many countries were still in lockdown and economic data were dismal is an excellent example of the tendency of stocks to move before the economy recovers. This time, as is often the case, if you waited for an “all clear signal” you would have missed out on substantial market gains.
We know investing through tumultuous markets is not easy, and we want to be a resource for you. Contact us if you’d like to hear more about our current views on the market or if you’re interested in learning more about our services.
During these volatile times, it is more important than ever that we maintain our excellent level of service. As always, Fisher Investments provides proactive and personalized communications that respond to our clients’ needs, concerns and interests. As the COVID-19 situation evolves, clients hear regularly from their dedicated Investment Counselors, who keep them up-to-date on their portfolios and our strategy.
COVID-19’s toll on human lives and communities has been tragic, and the resulting financial strain on people and markets hasn’t made it any easier. Many investors feel like they’ve been thrown off course in their efforts to reach their financial goals.
We’ve helped clients through bear markets and other periods of volatility and uncertainty before. And we’re here to help now. Contact us online or by calling +352 2786 7320. We’d be happy to share our perspective to help get you back on course during these difficult times.