Bear Market Indicators

“There’s simply no single answer to the question: What causes a bear market? … There is no fundamental indicator on its own, no technical indicator on its own, no single silver bullet, no nothing on its own perfectly predicting when a bear market will start.”

–Ken Fisher, The Only Three Questions That Count

A bear market is a fundamentally-driven drop of approximately 20% or more over an extended period of time. We believe that, with thorough research and analysis, impending bear markets can be identified and some of the bear market decline can be avoided. Bear in mind, though, no one has consistently and correctly called every bear market in advance.

We think of bear markets starting in two ways—a “Wall of Worry” or a “Wallop”. The Wall refers to the idea that as bull markets mature, various investor fears become accepted and dispelled. These fears become bricks in the Wall that eventually lead to sky-high expectations and euphoria overtaking investors.  A Wallop refers to an unexpected, immovable object that is large enough to knock off several percentage points off global gross domestic product (GDP).

Following are some indicators, or signs, that characterise negative fundamentals, euphoric investor sentiment and potential big negatives. While these indicators can be helpful, we don’t believe any single indicator alone is perfectly predictive of bear markets.

 

Negative Fundamentals

FIg 1

 

Euphoric Investor Sentiment

Fig 2

 

 

A Wallop—Big Enough to Shave Several Trillion off Global Economic GDP

Fig 3

A common misconception is that regional geopolitical conflicts are likely to cause bear markets. Note that, per the table above, a geopolitical conflict must be major and global in nature to end a bull market—a sustained period of rising equity prices. Smaller, regional conflicts typically aren’t powerful enough. For instance, the current bull market has already surmounted fears surrounding the Israel-Hamas conflict, Russian-Ukrainian crisis and North Korean missile tests—those fears have simply become bricks in the “Wall of Worry” this bull has climbed. Even when global powers escalate a local war, it doesn’t usually derail a bull as long as the conflict remains geographically confined.

Although equities may fluctuate on uncertainty as a conflict begins, once the conflict is actually underway, the market typically digests and moves beyond it. Localised conflicts often don’t have the power or far-reaching economic impact to derail a global bull market. Thus, geopolitical conflicts rarely have a lasting impact on market direction. The one exception is the onset of World War II, which Walloped the ongoing bull market in 1937 when it became clear it was escalating into a global war. Still, equities bottomed in 1942, a full three years before the end of World War II. Equities can and do rise during periods of even significant armed conflict. A major, unexpected conflict inflicting global damage would be big enough to be a Wallop.

Exiting the equity market is one of the biggest investment risks you can make. If you are wrong and the market continues to climb, you have missed out on returns that are important for a long-term equity investor’s objectives. Deciding to sell or go defensive needs to be tactical and shouldn’t be based on gut feelings. Watching for these market signals can help you remain impartial and help you identify if a bear market is ahead so you can make decisions accordingly.

Investing in financial markets involves the risk of loss and there is no guarantee that all or any capital invested will be repaid. Past performance neither guarantees nor reliably indicates future performance. The value of investments and the income from them will fluctuate with world financial markets and international currency exchange rates.