Q1 2026 Global Markets Review & Outlook

Inside, you will find a summary of market activity and our market outlook.

• Geopolitical Conflict Should be Less Impactful than Feared: While many fear a prolonged conflict with Iran and the inflationary pressures oil supply constraints might bring, we believe these fears to be overblown. History shows that as worst-case fears prove overly dour, equities typically rally and oil prices fall back to pre-conflict levels long before fighting stops, typically within 6 – 12 months of the conflict’s onset.
• Political Tailwinds Should Support this Bull Market: With few major elections globally and most trade negotiations now resolved, political uncertainty outside the US remains subdued. With US midterm elections on the horizon, the Trump administration has a major incentive to reach a quick resolution with Iran. Market volatility sets the stage for the US Midterm Miracle in the latter half of the year, with the election expected to bring greater legislative gridlock – boosting returns.
• Investor Sentiment Has Been Reset: In contrast to the warming investor sentiment that followed the 2025 market correction, the conflict in Iran has reset sentiment, rebuilding the wall of worry. The growing gap between sentiment and strong underlying fundamentals provides fuel for this bull market to continue.