Daily Commentary

MarketMinder’s View: So first, this piece drips with partisanship, so please note MarketMinder favors no politician nor any political party. The essential argument here is that no one can know what lies ahead for the American economy, given what it considers landmark shifts in fiscal, monetary and trade policy, after the Trump administration’s moves in 2025. The article hypes these shifts as presenting vast risks to the economic outlook, only briefly mentioning factors like AI as potential bullish offsets, concluding that no one can know how big policy shifts play out and if the US economy will prove resilient. Now, we think this reeks of bias, risking a fundamentally flawed take on economic trends. Yes, trade policy shifted amid tariffs and dealmaking, but the effect was far smaller than feared. Deficits are elevated (although data from the Treasury and US Bureau of Economic Analysis show fiscal 2025’s finished down, to 5.7% of GDP, below the 6% cited here and the 6.2% projected by the Congressional Budget Office). But it has been elevated for years and we question anyone who thinks politicians have suddenly lost their fiscal discipline. (It was never there.) On monetary policy, there is no real sign decisions are any more politicized now than before. But regardless of what you think of these factors stands this question: What are you supposed to do with this information? All these things are widely known and discussed. If you take any action (or inaction) based on them, you are acting on things everyone knows. The point is this: In a time of uncertainty, to whatever extent you think that is now, we think you should invest in keeping with your goals and needs—hew close to your long-term strategy. Deviating from this is an action requiring insights few others have.

MarketMinder’s View: Yes, gold has soared in 2025 alongside other precious metals like silver and palladium—on track for its biggest annual gain since 1979. This article claims that, then as now, uncertainty is the key driver, arguing “Gold is considered a resilient investment, with investors expecting the yellow metal will retain its value in crisis, if inflation surges, or if currencies drop in value.” Now, the use of passive voice in that quotation means we have no idea who considers it that, but whoever it is happens to be wrong. Gold is not a hedge against inflation, as this year’s rise amid cooling global inflation suggests. It is not a hedge against crisis either—and frankly, comparing the economic effects of the war in Ukraine and tensions with Venezuela to the 1979 issues involving Iran and the oil embargo seem like a stretch to us.  (Nor is the war in Ukraine new. When war broke out in 2022, gold initially jumped—then fell alongside stocks, per FactSet data, which is a further point noting gold is neither a crisis/war hedge nor an inflation one, given that was when prices were galloping higher.) Gold is a speculative asset, one with higher volatility than stocks and lower long-term returns. It has no yield, dividends, profits or sales—no fundamentals at all. You are speculating on the actions and whims of other investors, which is very hard to do. Yes, some of those investors may be central banks from around the world, largely to diversify reserves. But how much of that is already priced in? We suspect a lot. At any rate, we don’t forecast gold—because we don’t think anyone can. But it may be worth noting that the Carter-era run peaked on January 21, 1980 at $850 per troy ounce, per FactSet data. It didn’t see that mark again until January 2008—28 years later! Over that span, it boomed and busted often, cumulatively losing value to inflation. Yuck.

MarketMinder’s View: It is generally an error to draw large conclusions from isolated data sets involving economic activity in short period of time, yet this article does just that, suggesting a -7.7% drop in central London’s foot traffic on Boxing Day versus 2024 augurs poorly for Britain’s economic prospects and is a sign the cost-of-living crisis continues to hamper growth. But here is the thing: When you cast a wider net, you find footfall at all locations was a flattish -0.3%. Given that this is footfall only and not spending, you could see a rise. But regardless, one day’s activity in a slice of consumer spending will never reveal much about an economy. This is, perhaps, doubly true in Britain. As this piece notes, “High streets have struggled to attract Boxing Day crowds in recent years as more sales move online. Fashion retailer Next, for example, begins its online sales on Christmas Eve and remains closed on Boxing Day, with in-store sales not beginning until Dec 27. The post-Christmas sales have also been undermined by a flurry of earlier discounting periods, such as Black Friday and Cyber Monday, which have pulled spending forward to earlier in the year.”