MarketMinder Daily Commentary

Providing succinct, entertaining and savvy thinking on global capital markets. Our goal is to provide discerning investors the most essential information and commentary to stay in tune with what's happening in the markets, while providing unique perspectives on essential financial issues. And just as important, Fisher Investments MarketMinder aims to help investors discern between useful information and potentially misleading hype.

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Gold Has Smashed Record After Record. It Is Set to Continue Glittering in 2025

By Joseph Hoppe, The Wall Street Journal, 2/10/2025

MarketMinder’s View: Gold has been on a hot streak lately, with prices rising six weeks straight and hitting new all-time highs along the way. This article suggests the shiny metal has further to run, citing geopolitical uncertainty, inflation and central banks’ potentially lowering rates and buying bullion. Maybe, but in our view, these aren’t reasons for investors to rush to gold. History shows why. Consider the geopolitical uncertainty due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Gold shined early on but then slid for much of the rest of the year. While most other assets did as well, gold’s decline was by a far greater magnitude than stocks’. Secondly, inflation has outpaced gold prices on multiple occasions, so we wouldn’t count on it as a store of value, either. Central banks? While their buying sprees can reduce supply (thereby leading to higher prices) in the short term, they aren’t expert timers, either. Plus, interest rates and gold prices don’t have a long-term relationship. Widely expected rate cuts in 2025 don’t ensure gold’s success. In our view, sentiment drives gold demand most, as the shiny metal doesn’t follow the economic cycle—and we think trying to forecast how moods change (especially in the short term) is impossible.


NY Fed Survey Sees Inflation Expectations Edge Up Before Tariffs

By Alex Tanzi, Bloomberg, 2/10/2025

MarketMinder’s View: We think the titular point misses some important context. First, the January results: “Expected inflation five years ahead rose to 3% last month, the highest since May 2024, according to results of the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations published Monday. Expected inflation rates over the next year and three years ahead were both unchanged from December at 3%.” Read that last sentence again—respondents’ views for the next 12 months and 36 months, respectively, haven’t changed. Surveys like this aren’t prescient, but consumers’ views for the foreseeable future remain pretty similar despite tariff announcements. The takeaways here track with the University of Michigan's latest findings, and this article touches on chatter that increased expectations could influence monetary policy ahead, but we think this is a bridge too far. Inflation expectations don’t determine inflation itself. It isn’t a psychological phenomenon, it is a monetary one: Too much money chasing too few goods. Secondly, monetary policy is unpredictable, no matter the input. The Fed reviews myriad economic data when weighing policy, and it is impossible to know how (or if) it will incorporate these expectations.


In China’s Export Hub of Yiwu, Traders Shrug Off Trump's Tariffs

By Andrew Silver and Nicoco Chan, Reuters, 2/10/2025

MarketMinder’s View: Here is a closer look at how many overseas businesses have been preparing for President Donald Trump’s tariffs, providing some interesting perspective. This article focuses on Yiwu, a city in eastern China and the world’s largest wholesale hub for small manufactured items—many of which are US-bound. As the business owners interviewed here note, their products are profitable and they can absorb some of the tariff burden through reducing their profit margins—or adjusting their costs. Alternatively, one business head is dodging tariffs entirely by setting up operations in the US. Note, too, Trump tariffs are an old movie for many companies, and years of experience mean businesses are now pretty darn good at dodging them. To be clear, tariffs aren’t a positive—but they also aren’t the massive negative headlines make them out to be.


Gold Has Smashed Record After Record. It Is Set to Continue Glittering in 2025

By Joseph Hoppe, The Wall Street Journal, 2/10/2025

MarketMinder’s View: Gold has been on a hot streak lately, with prices rising six weeks straight and hitting new all-time highs along the way. This article suggests the shiny metal has further to run, citing geopolitical uncertainty, inflation and central banks’ potentially lowering rates and buying bullion. Maybe, but in our view, these aren’t reasons for investors to rush to gold. History shows why. Consider the geopolitical uncertainty due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Gold shined early on but then slid for much of the rest of the year. While most other assets did as well, gold’s decline was by a far greater magnitude than stocks’. Secondly, inflation has outpaced gold prices on multiple occasions, so we wouldn’t count on it as a store of value, either. Central banks? While their buying sprees can reduce supply (thereby leading to higher prices) in the short term, they aren’t expert timers, either. Plus, interest rates and gold prices don’t have a long-term relationship. Widely expected rate cuts in 2025 don’t ensure gold’s success. In our view, sentiment drives gold demand most, as the shiny metal doesn’t follow the economic cycle—and we think trying to forecast how moods change (especially in the short term) is impossible.


NY Fed Survey Sees Inflation Expectations Edge Up Before Tariffs

By Alex Tanzi, Bloomberg, 2/10/2025

MarketMinder’s View: We think the titular point misses some important context. First, the January results: “Expected inflation five years ahead rose to 3% last month, the highest since May 2024, according to results of the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations published Monday. Expected inflation rates over the next year and three years ahead were both unchanged from December at 3%.” Read that last sentence again—respondents’ views for the next 12 months and 36 months, respectively, haven’t changed. Surveys like this aren’t prescient, but consumers’ views for the foreseeable future remain pretty similar despite tariff announcements. The takeaways here track with the University of Michigan's latest findings, and this article touches on chatter that increased expectations could influence monetary policy ahead, but we think this is a bridge too far. Inflation expectations don’t determine inflation itself. It isn’t a psychological phenomenon, it is a monetary one: Too much money chasing too few goods. Secondly, monetary policy is unpredictable, no matter the input. The Fed reviews myriad economic data when weighing policy, and it is impossible to know how (or if) it will incorporate these expectations.


In China’s Export Hub of Yiwu, Traders Shrug Off Trump's Tariffs

By Andrew Silver and Nicoco Chan, Reuters, 2/10/2025

MarketMinder’s View: Here is a closer look at how many overseas businesses have been preparing for President Donald Trump’s tariffs, providing some interesting perspective. This article focuses on Yiwu, a city in eastern China and the world’s largest wholesale hub for small manufactured items—many of which are US-bound. As the business owners interviewed here note, their products are profitable and they can absorb some of the tariff burden through reducing their profit margins—or adjusting their costs. Alternatively, one business head is dodging tariffs entirely by setting up operations in the US. Note, too, Trump tariffs are an old movie for many companies, and years of experience mean businesses are now pretty darn good at dodging them. To be clear, tariffs aren’t a positive—but they also aren’t the massive negative headlines make them out to be.