Fisher Investments recaps the biggest market, political and economic news from last week, including the US presidential election, US, UK, Eurozone and Japanese Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) figures and China’s Q4 GDP data.
In the US, December core consumer prices (excluding food and energy) rose 0.1% m/m and 1.6% y/y, in line with expectations. December industrial and manufacturing production exceeded analyst estimates, expanding 1.6% m/m and 0.9% m/m, respectively. December retail sales rose 2.9% y/y, missing expectations. Initial jobless claims jumped to 965,000 during the week ending January 9—significantly higher than consensus estimates but still far below the record weekly job losses during the height of the spring 2020 lockdowns.
Eurozone and UK data were light this week. In the eurozone, November industrial production rose 2.5% from the prior month but declined 0.6% from the same period last year, though both figures beat consensus forecasts. In the UK, November industrial production fell 4.7% y/y while manufacturing production declined 3.8% y/y.
In Japan, preliminary December money supply (M2) expanded 9.2% y/y, matching consensus estimates. November retail sales rose 0.6% y/y. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) left short-term interest rates unchanged at -0.1%. In China, December consumer prices rose 0.2% y/y, higher than estimates and reversing direction from November’s 0.5% y/y decline. November trade activity exceeded expectations, with exports and imports rising 18.1% y/y and 6.5% y/y, respectively. December money supply (M2) increased 10.1% y/y, in line with expectations.
The Week Ahead:
The US, UK, eurozone and Japan announce preliminary January manufacturing and services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) figures. In the US, Q4 2020 earnings releases will continue. The UK, eurozone and Japan release December inflation data. The UK also reports December retail sales. Japan also announces November industrial production and December trade figures. China announces Q4 2020 GDP.
Tip of the Week:
Fisher Investments’ offices and US markets will be closed on Monday, January 18 in observance of Martin Luther King, Jr. Day.
Source for all data cited is FactSet. This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses the maximum rate applicable to non-resident institutional investors who do not benefit from double taxation treaties. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A risk of loss is involved with investments in stock markets.