Daily Commentary

MarketMinder’s View: As data nerds, we enjoy a thorough discussion about new economic measures and information collection strategies as much as the next market commentary website. This article focuses on various AI-related metrics in development, and as relayed here, the experts are having a tough go at it. “Researchers can’t even agree on basic questions like how many companies are using A.I. or which workers are most vulnerable to the disruptions it could cause. The conflicting signals partly reflect the challenge of detecting economic shifts in real time. Government statistics are inherently backward looking, and they are better at measuring broad trends than developments in specific sectors or regions.” As one outfit highlighted here notes, both government and private data are muddy—a firm may have an AI chat subscription, but how does that translate into company-wide productivity gains (if it does at all)? That doesn’t mean it isn’t worth trying to measure AI’s effects, but as the concluding paragraphs here note, AI is just one component of the economy to consider—other variables, from monetary policy to other industry trends, matter, too. For more, see Elisabeth Dellinger’s 2023 commentary, “The Long-Term Perspective Lacking in the Recent AI Craze.”

MarketMinder’s View: Setting the stage: “Gallup runs an annual poll to determine America’s most popular long-term investment. In nearly two decades of polling, Americans have never picked stocks. ... In a 2026 poll, when respondents were asked to choose among six ‘best’ long-term investments, the top answer, by a wide margin, was real estate.” But hold up. While stocks seem perennially unloved, “From 1992 and 2024, the S&P [500] yielded an average return of 10.4% a year, according to Investopedia. In the same years, home prices grew by about 5.5% annually.” And that isn’t even taking into account property taxes, homeowners’ insurance, maintenance and repair. So what gives? As the article notes, compared to stocks’ short-term volatility, “A home feels like a safe investment. So do savings accounts, CDs and gold, the asset classes that topped the Gallup poll at times in the [2007 – 2009 bear market].” (Gold, we would note, is a lousy safe haven, even more volatile than stocks, while returning less long term.) Now, stocks do have the risk of short-term declines. But this is just one of many risks investors must contend with, and real estate isn’t immune. Home prices fall. Plus, what about inflation risk? And liquidity risk? Our point is, investors’ personal goals, objectives and time horizon should determine their asset allocation. For those who require long-term growth, stocks make a lot of sense. For more on stocks as investors’ best road to riches, please see “The Path to Wealth Isn’t Through Homeownership.”

MarketMinder’s View: The metric discussed here—net profit margins—helps show why valuations, including forward price-to-earnings ratios, aren’t anything to go by: “The net profit margin for companies in the S&P 500 rose to 14.8% in the first quarter, according to FactSet. This marks the highest net margin, a measure of the profit generated from every dollar of revenue, reported by the index since the data provider began tracking this metric in 2009. The previous peak of 13.2% was set just a quarter earlier. It isn’t just tech companies, either. In the first quarter, multiple sectors including financial services and industrials reported net margins above their five-year averages. ... Corporate earnings have historically been one of the biggest drivers of stock gains, and the latest earnings season has shaped up to be much better than expected.” (As the article names some specific companies as examples, please note MarketMinder doesn’t make individual security recommendations and features this for the broader theme only.) Now, the quarterly net profit margins discussed here are indeed backward-looking, but they confirm Corporate America went into the Iran War on solid ground. This is very old news to stocks, but it may help investors see the American economy doesn’t rely on Tech or AI alone—America’s private sector is broadly resilient.