Fisher Investments recaps the biggest market, political and economic news from last week, including October US core consumer prices, September eurozone industrial production and the first estimate of UK Q3 2021 GDP.
In the US, October core consumer prices (excluding food and energy) rose 4.6% y/y and 0.6% m/m, higher than expected. As Q3 2021 earnings season draws to a close, company profits are up 39.2% from Q3 2020, handily beating expectations for a 23.5% increase. Despite widely discussed concerns such as supply chain issues, rising input costs, labor shortages and more, companies proved more adaptable than many anticipated—finding ways to maintain or expand margins and generate value for shareholders. This is why stocks are often one of the best inflation hedges around. For more, please see our 11/09/2021 commentary, “What Q3 Earnings Results Say About Stocks and Inflation.”
In the UK, the first estimate of Q3 2021 GDP growth was 6.6% y/y and 1.3% q/q, both slightly missing expectations. Q3 exports fell 1.9% q/q while imports rose 2.5% q/q, both less than forecast. September industrial and manufacturing production increased 2.9% y/y and 2.8% y/y, respectively—below consensus estimates. In the eurozone, September industrial production rose 5.2% y/y but fell 0.2% m/m, slightly beating expectations.
In Japan, October bank lending increased 0.9% y/y. In China, October consumer prices rose 1.5% y/y, higher than forecast. October exports increased 27.1% y/y, surpassing estimates, while imports rose 20.6% y/y, less than expected. October money supply (M2) expanded 8.7% y/y, higher than anticipated.
The Week Ahead:
The US, UK and China report October retail sales figures. The US releases October industrial and manufacturing production. The UK, eurozone and Japan report October inflation data. The eurozone releases its second Q3 2021 GDP estimate while Japan releases its first. Japan also reports September retail sales, September industrial production and October trade data.
Source for all data cited is FactSet. This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses the maximum rate applicable to non-resident institutional investors who do not benefit from double taxation treaties. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A risk of loss is involved with investments in stock markets.