Global equities fell 2.8% amid mixed economic reports. In the US, economic data were mixed. The Conference Board’s October Leading Economic Index rose 0.1%. Recall, a rising LEI trend has never preceded a recession in the last 50 years. November Markit manufacturing and services Flash Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) fell to 55.4 and 54.4 respectively, both slightly below expectations but still indicating expansion. October durable goods orders declined 4.4% m/m, lower than expectations. The decline was largely due to lower demand for aircraft, which tend to have broad month-to-month swings. Durable goods order excluding transportation orders (aircraft included) increased 0.1% m/m. October housing starts increased 1.5% m/m, missing consensus forecasts.
Eurozone and UK data were light. November eurozone Markit manufacturing and services Flash PMIs came in at 51.5 and 53.1, both missing expectations. In the UK, headlines focused on Brexit theatrics. Uncertainty continues to drive short-term wobbles in UK equity and currency markets, underscoring our view that any agreement likely reduces overall uncertainty and allows markets to move on—a positive. For more, please see our 11/16/2018 MarketMinder column “The Brexit Agreement’s Aftermath.”
In Asia, Japan’s October core-core inflation (excluding fresh food and energy) rose 0.4% y/y, in line with expectations. October export and import values grew 8.2% y/y and 19.9% y/y, respectively.
The US reports the second estimate of Q3 2018 GDP and October new home sales. The eurozone releases October money supply, loan growth and November inflation. China posts November manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI data. Japan announces the November Nikkei manufacturing PMI, October retail sales and the October unemployment rate.
Source for all data cited is FactSet. This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses a Luxembourg tax basis. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A risk of loss is involved with investments in stock markets.