US economic data were mixed. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell 0.2% m/m in September—the first decline in the last twelve months—missing forecasts for 0.1% growth. However, the weakness partially stemmed from transitory hurricane related effects. Despite the slight decline, the majority of the index’s components contributed positively and the LEI remains in growth territory. September import and export prices beat expectations, rising 2.7% y/y and 2.9% y/y, respectively. Industrial production in September rose 1.6% y/y, missing forecasts.
In the UK, September retail sales fell 0.8% m/m, short of consensus. September eurozone and UK core consumer prices (excluding food and energy) met expectations, rising 1.1% y/y and 2.7% y/y respectively. Austria’s center-right People’s Party won approximately 31% of votes in Sunday’s parliamentary elections. While some fret a potential coalition with the far-right Freedom Party, the election’s conclusion is another example of falling political uncertainty this year. Simply knowing the election’s outcome should help investors move on and boost European stocks, much as they did after the Dutch and French elections earlier this year.
China’s 19th Party Congress began on Wednesday. Officials meet during the weeklong event to elect party leaders and outline policy direction over the next five years. We don’t anticipate any material changes if recent policy announcements have been any indication—most have been continuations of policy decisions from earlier this year. Chinese Q3 2017 GDP expanded 6.8% y/y, while September industrial production rose 6.6% y/y.
The US releases its Q3 2017 GDP estimate and September new home sales figures. The eurozone announces manufacturing and services purchasing managers’ indexes. The UK posts its preliminary Q3 2017 GDP estimate. Japan releases closely watched inflation data for September.
—The Investment Policy Committee
Source for all data cited is FactSet. This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses a Luxembourg tax basis. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A risk of loss is involved with investments in stock markets.