Institutional Investing / Market Outlook

Q3 2023 Global Markets Review & Outlook

Volatility cut both ways in Q3, lifting global equities to new year-to-date highs at July’s end before a late-quarter pullback set in. While negative sentiment could keep weighing on equities in the near future, we think the bull market’s backdrop looks bright. Economic conditions appear better than most everyone expected, gridlock continues sapping legislative risk, and broader EM data has shown resilience. Better still, year four of the US presidential cycle lies ahead, extending political tailwinds globally through 2024 at least. With politics largely gridlocked throughout the developed world and sentiment broadly dour, reality has a low bar to clear to beat expectations.

Inside, you will find a summary of market activity and our market outlook.

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  • Sentiment is behaving typical of an early bull: Recirculated fears over inflation, US politics, a pending recession and narrow market breadth have dragged expectations lower. Yet the economic reality is brighter than these fears imply—providing room for upside surprise.
  • Anticipation is mitigation: Widespread recession forecasts thus far haven’t been realized and businesses have already taken cautionary measures to mute a potential recession if one comes.
  • Fourth year of a US president’s term is a tailwind: Global political gridlock will continue to sap legislative risk for the rest of this year and into next, an underappreciated positive.

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