Daily Commentary

MarketMinder's View: UK retail sales volumes fell -1.3% m/m in April, flipping from March’s downwardly revised 0.6% rise, but not because high gas prices (or petrol, if you prefer) are destroying consumer demand broadly. Rather, people stocked up on fuel in March, then conserved and tried to avoid filling the tank in April. Fuel sales volumes rose 6.1% m/m in March, then plunged -10.2% in April, per the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Strip that out, and retail sales volumes fell just -0.4% m/m in April. The twin culprits were “variable weather conditions and lower demand as shoppers worried about rising prices.” The ONS described the latter as “increased price sensitivity,” which means retailers don’t have pricing power right now. That, friends, is yet another indication (alongside tame money supply growth) that high energy prices can’t cause high inflation. They are prompting substitution, which weighs on prices in other categories. We think that is the big takeaway here. Inevitably people will worry what a retail speed bump means for broader economic growth, but past occasional declines haven’t led to falling GDP. Between inflation and economic jitters, the UK’s wall of worry looks high.

MarketMinder’s View: This S&P 500 earnings season wrap-up name drops myriad stocks, so please keep in mind we don’t make individual security recommendations and our interest is the higher-level theme. “About 93% of the benchmark’s companies have reported earnings, with 83% of them blowing past analyst expectations, Bloomberg Intelligence data shows. That’s the highest since 2021. Growth has been broad-based with the exception of healthcare.” Despite that obvious evidence of breadth, much of the article focuses on Tech and, to a lesser extent, Energy—both telling statements about sentiment. It speaks to elevated expectations toward Tech, which we think are raising the bar reality needs to clear to deliver positive surprise. For Energy, this is mostly a war fixation, naturally, which is heavily backward looking and likely pre-priced. Listen, all earnings data are in the past and don’t tell you where stocks are headed. But the sentiment the coverage illuminates is key.

MarketMinder’s View: “The volume of goods moving across national borders was 3.5% higher in the first three months of the year than it was in the previous quarter, according to figures released Friday by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis—also known as the CPB—which has long tracked world trade as a key influence on the Dutch economy. That followed a strong pickup in volumes during 2025, which was a surprise given the sharp rise in U.S. tariffs.” This coverage overstates the degree to which AI has boosted trade. Is that happening? Sure. But until Q1, US imports (a key metric that would be boosted by AI) fell in three successive quarters … yet 2025 world trade rose. And, Chinese exports noted here as rising are unlikely to be heavily AI-tied. In our view, this speaks to the fact the world can’t deglobalize fast—and there are myriad ways firms can evade or mitigate tariffs. That is why trade has grown despite fears of tariff effects. Looking forward, it is also unlikely the Strait of Hormuz upends this materially, as that would more likely redirect rather than cancel activity. The global economy is just healthier than people fear, and trade data are one way to see that.