Fisher Investments - This Week In Review (Dec. 13, 2024)

Transcript

Liz Dhillon:

Hello, and welcome to This Week in Review. This weekly segment is designed to highlight a few things you may have missed this week, what they mean for financial markets and, most importantly, investors.

Now, let’s review what happened this week.  

First, developments in Syria

This week started off with major news from Syria, where opposition forces brought an end to the country’s dictatorship. Whenever there’s unrest like this, it’s natural to wonder how it might affect the global economy or financial markets. But history suggests that regional conflicts typically don’t have a big global impact. In particular, while the Middle East is integral to oil markets, the region doesn’t make up a large share of global economic output. Speaking of oil, you might expect the developments in Syria to shake up oil prices given the country’s proximity to large oil-producing countries like Iraq and Saudi Arabia. But perhaps surprisingly for some, oil markets hardly reacted. Syria’s oil production has already been significantly reduced over its past decade-plus of civil war, so ongoing developments in the country don’t seem to have much impact on global oil supply or prices anymore—limiting its relevance for global investors.

Next, US Inflation Data

Wednesday, the US reported November Consumer Price Index inflation data, which indicates how much the prices of everyday items are changing. Inflation, as measured over the last 12 months, accelerated in November, sitting at 2.7% y/y. Some investors may find this worrisome, thinking it could mean inflation is picking back up. But here’s the thing—fluctuations in inflation aren’t unusual at all. They’ve happened countless times since inflation data started being tracked in 1914. Even just over the last couple years, inflation has ticked back up at various times, but those instances didn’t result in another inflation spike. Since 2022, the overall trend has been inflation slowing down, albeit with bumps along the way. We think this month’s data is just another temporary blip and doesn’t spell doom and gloom for the economy or stocks.

Political updates in France

Today, there was some big political news out of France. President Emmanuel Macron officially put forward a new candidate for prime minister. This comes after the current prime minister lost a no-confidence vote in the French parliament earlier this month. Now, even with a fresh face in the running, the new potential prime minister is stepping into a tricky political situation. It’s not going to be easy to try to pull together a functional new government given France’s deeply fractured political landscape, and it may take some time. This means French political uncertainty likely remains high for now as negotiations unfold, yet we think stocks should be able to price in the evolving landscape and eventually move on.

That’s a wrap!

And that’s it for this episode. To learn more about what we’re watching, check out our other series, Three Things You Need to Know This Week, released each Monday. You can also visit FisherInvestments.com for more insights.  Thanks for joining us, and don’t forget to subscribe!