Personal Wealth Management / Expert Commentary
Ken Fisher Shares his Stock Market Forecast for the Rest of 2021
In his latest video, Fisher Investments’ founder and Co-Chief Investment Officer Ken Fisher shares his stock market forecast for the remainder of the year.
Title Screen Appears, “Ken Fisher Shares his Stock Market Forecast for the Rest of 2021”
A man appears on the screen wearing a light blue shirt and yellow tie, sitting in his office.
He begins to speak.
A banner identifies him as Ken Fisher, Executive Chairman and Co-Chief Investment Officer, Fisher Investments.
Ken Fisher doing hand gestures from time to time explaining.
Ken Fisher: You people always ask, you know, what's ahead in the next six months or so for a very long time in days of old on the legendary show that used to exist, Wall Street Week with Lewis Rukeyser, you know, he used to operate under the mantra of what's ahead for the economy. Why? Because that's one of the things people always worry about. The fact is, said simply, that as I've said in another video and as the leading economic index numbers indicate, as I've said in a still additional prior video, the economy is in a slow growth mode now, having bounced back from the constrictions of the COVID lockdowns. We have returned to the condition that we were in before February 2020 when COVID struck on masse and the lockdowns were crammed onto our world and have had this fast growth that is now rolling over into slower growth as we continue the cycle that existed before these things happened to all of us. As that goes on, the fact is we revert to a world in so many ways that acts as it acted before February 2020.
Ken Fisher: It acts in a world where things that can do well in a growth, but low growth environment are rewarded. Things that require faster growth to do well are not rewarded.
Ken Fisher: So natural growth companies are doing well in the stock market, and their businesses are doing well. Companies that got all excited about the bounce back are starting to run into headwinds, a point that the media has not yet much portrayed. The quality companies are doing better now, again, than the lower quality companies, which is different than earlier in the year as we were feeling the impact of the culmination of the bounce back economically. And we continue to have a politically increasingly benign environment as it becomes increasingly clear that most of the scariest changes, the biggest changes, maybe the ones you hoped for the most, I don't know, that might go through government are going to be non-existent watered down heavily. Now, let me just point to that for a minute.
Ken Fisher: This Congress doesn't allow much that's very extreme to get through because there's no margins in the House or the Senate. You have to actually get every basic Democrat to line up to get anything through Congress. The ability to do that is diminished by the degree there's any disagreement about what should be done among Democrats. So very little actually gets done. When you take anything legislatively, anything you take from these to give to those the people you take from hate it more than the people who give to like it, because people hate losses much more than they love gains. And in politics, we do that openly, in public, in front of everyone.
Ken Fisher: And as that fear of the taking from these to give to those people that get it like it, but they think it's good. But the people that lose it, they think it's bad. And they hate it more. As that fear goes away, we feel more benign about our more stable world, our perception of the stability increases. And as that happens, stocks traditionally do well, and that'll continue going on all of the rest of the next six months and into 2022.As we move into early on in 2022, both the full force of House of Representatives congressional redistricting, which will take a good couple of dozen congress people and move them into inaction, and simultaneously the beginning of primary season, which will take many more and move them into inaction.
Ken Fisher: So, the market, which of course will pre price what we see in 2022, in the back half of 2021, will react to all of that relatively benignly. The stock market will continue to be okay with volatility, and it'll be an okay world. And it's important for you as an investor to keep your eye on that longer term ball in a world that's growing but slower growth than what we've had, where growth stocks and big, high-quality names tend to do better than companies that are dependent on growth to do well, grow the economy to do well.
Ken Fisher: And that world is going to look a lot more over these next six months like the world before 2020 February, than the world between February 2020 and now.
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A Series of disclosures appears on screen: “Investing is Securities involves a risk of loss. Past performance is never a guarantee of future returns. Investing in foreign stock markets involves additional risks, such as the risk of currency fluctuations. The foregoing constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice or a reflection of the performance of fisher investment or its clients. Nothing herein is intended to be a recommendation or a forecast of market conditions. Rather it is intended to illustrate a point. Current and future markets may differ significantly from those illustrated here. Not all past forecasts were, nor future forecasts may be, as accurate as those predicted herein.
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