Daily Commentary

MarketMinder’s View: America’s manufacturing sector remained in the black in February, as the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM’s) purchasing managers’ index (PMI) came in at 52.4 (readings above 50.0 indicate expansion). This beat analysts’ expectations, thanks to growth in 12 of the survey’s 17 industries—a sign the sector entered 2026 on pretty solid footing despite President Donald Trump’s tariffs adding costs for many factory importers. Unsurprisingly, though, there are some signs of tariffs’ negative effects. “Producers of miscellaneous manufactured goods said they were ‘spending significant effort to work with our supply base to mitigate tariff impacts.’ Machinery manufacturers reported that tariff policy changes affected ‘total acquisition costs and purchasing source decisions,’ adding that because of tariffs, ‘most raw materials used in manufacturing, such as steel and wire, need to be sourced domestically, and the cost keeps going up.’” Fair enough, and we appreciate all the detailed reporting here. But we think the article goes too far in implying this signals heightened inflation risk, with energy prices’ rise after the US’s war with Iran began rendering an inflation double-whammy and lower likelihood of Fed rate cuts. We think this shows where sentiment is—bleaker than where the year began—and creates more positive surprise potential. Tariffs raise the cost of some things, adding uneven pressure on the sector, but businesses adapt and adjust to continue growing. While prices of some goods may rise, absent a runaway increase in money supply (which isn’t happening now), it motivates substitution rather than inflation. And extrapolating a single trading day’s energy price swings into the future based on the outbreak of conflict is a very speculative analysis, in our view.

MarketMinder’s View: Investors face plenty of risks, but we think outliving their money is one of the biggest. This piece is a handy resource for a growing category of retirees: Those who understand this risk and overcompensate for it, afraid to enjoy the fruits of their labor lest they put themselves in a bind later. This article offers some suggestions to folks looking to get out of that rut, using savings and investments to complement Social Security benefits without radically raising the risk of portfolio depletion. Namely, align your spending with your life phases, give yourself a monthly paycheck, splurge in small batches and tie your spending to your goals. Which brings up an important point: Understanding your goals and time horizon, along with the rate of return you will need over that time horizon, is critical not only to managing spending but ensuring your assets are invested right for your needs. If you haven’t done so in a while, try setting aside time to clearly define your goals, objectives and time horizon (how long your money must be invested to reach your goals). How long do you and your spouse (if applicable) expect to live based on personal and family health? How much income do you want per month? Do you expect any major purchases or donations? Do you seek to pass your assets on? Once these details are ironed out, it will be much easier to establish a plan that works for you. So if you are approaching retirement and need some details on how to conserve your savings while still affording the things you want, give this a read.

MarketMinder’s View: With financial fraud growing more abundant and technologically advanced, banks are stepping up to help thwart criminals—or, if you are more cynical, to limit their potential exposure to lawsuits. Regardless, some 1,500 financial institutions across the US have begun using AARP’s “BankSafe” program, which helps bank tellers and other employees recognize fraud as it happens. And that is a plus for sure. “Dr. Teaster’s analysis of data from BankSafe, during a six-month pilot in 82 financial institutions, found that participants were much more likely to report suspected cases and save customers money than a control group was.” The story here helps visualize this, as one local bank teller spotted a developing fraud case and stopped it—preventing one person from potentially losing $70,000. BankSafe’s growing popularity pairs with recent legislation supporting banks’ security endeavors, cutting against rising financial crime today. Listen, this kind of article is a plus both because of the fact it shows banks are acting to at least try and quell fraudsters, but also because the details of the story are increasingly common. And they are a reminder to all of the kind of urgency and embarrassment that fraudsters prey upon. The one thing we would add to this? It makes it all seem like only the elderly are at risk. That is wrong, wrong, wrong. Every demographic group has been victimized by frauds like these, so learning the basic issues from another person’s experience is good for anyone.