Daily Commentary

MarketMinder’s View: A lot of UK politics here, so please note MarketMinder is nonpartisan, preferring no party nor politician and assessing developments for their potential economic or market effects only. A little over a week ago, the UK’s Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR, the country’s fiscal watchdog) informed Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves about its plans to downgrade its productivity forecasts. That may force Reeves to make some politically tough decisions with her autumn Budget (e.g., raising taxes) because the Chancellor, by law, must target a balanced budget within five years—and the OBR’s forecasts are the arbiter. This piece provides some interesting background for those unfamiliar, and it raises a key point: This is largely a political debate, not an economic one. “Tensions between the OBR and the Treasury have spilled into the open in recent weeks, with Reeves using an interview to call on the forecaster to ‘score’, that is to say include in its projections, pro-growth government policies. To avoid another spring scramble for savings, Reeves is also considering having the OBR assess her against her rules only once a year.” Again, we aren’t choosing sides, but basing fiscal policy on subjective forecasts is questionable, especially since the OBR’s outlooks (similar to other outfits) are based on historical averages and straight-line math. Besides inaccurate projections, there isn’t much proof politicians’ responses have alleviated Britain’s Budget worries. We will keep an eye on how this hot-button issue develops, but for investors, remember markets care less about what is “good” or “bad” for markets and more about the fundamental state of the UK’s finances. On that front, reality is better than headlines make it seem, considering the affordability of the UK’s debt.

MarketMinder’s View: This piece mentions several equity indexes and publicly traded companies, so please note MarketMinder doesn’t make individual security recommendations. Their mention is coincident to our highlighting a broader theme: Three quarters in, US stocks are way down the leaderboard, with America’s S&P 500 ranking just 57^th globally in year-to-date returns in local currencies. The article attempts to diagnose this shift, suggesting worries around a trade war, politics and government debt have dragged on US returns. Perhaps. But we would add a broader factor: differences in expectations and reality globally. Entering 2025, sentiment toward non-US nations (especially Europe) was noticeably cooler relative to the US for reasons including political uncertainty in Germany, France’s budget problems and UK tax hikes) and overall weak economic growth fears. That irrationally depressed sentiment queued up a larger wall of worry across the pond—and as better-than-expected economic reality came to pass, the relief boosted non-US stocks. Compare that with America, where politics and lofty Tech-related growth expectations made sentiment relatively brighter—and it didn’t help that tariffs hurt the imposing country more than tariff recipients. This is an illustrative case of how markets work. Stocks move the most on the gap between reality and expectations, and the gap was simply wider outside of America’s borders this year—which non-US returns show.

MarketMinder’s View: The National Association for Business Economics (NABE), an international group of economists, academics and policymakers, unveiled a mixed economic outlook Monday. Positively, NABE bumped its 2025 annual real GDP growth forecast from 1.3% to 1.8%, citing a sharp rise in expected business investment. Looking forward, the association expects steady growth through 2026. That growth isn’t gangbusters, but the upward revision acknowledges tariffs haven’t hit the economy as hard as forecast. But NABE also sees some weak spots, including slower job growth and consumer spending. None of this is predictive, but it captures where broader sentiment toward the US is lately. Some pockets of optimism, but skepticism seems stronger, despite this year’s better-than-expected economic performance. And as we covered last week, this skepticism is a sign euphoria calls and market bubble fears are off base. Forecasts featuring mixed sentiment aren’t what you would typically see when a broad market bubble is forming.