Fisher Investments recaps the biggest market, political and economic news from last week, including US Leading Economic Index data, UK and eurozone services and manufacturing PMIs and Japanese trade data.
In the US, the Conference Board’s March Leading Economic Index (LEI) increased 1.3% m/m. The April Markit Services and Manufacturing Flash Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) rose to 63.1 and 60.6, respectively. (Readings above 50 indicate economic expansion.) Initial unemployment claims totaled 547,000 for the week ending April 17, marking the lowest level since March 2020. March new home sales jumped 20.7% m/m.
In the eurozone, the April Markit Services and Manufacturing Flash PMIs rose to 50.3 and 63.3, respectively. The European Central Bank left monetary policy unchanged. In the UK, April Markit/CIPS Services and Manufacturing Flash PMIs rose to 60.1 and 60.7, respectively. In March core consumer prices (excluding food and energy) rose 1.1% y/y, while retail sales increased 5.4% m/m and 7.2% y/y, exceeding forecasts. The unemployment rate declined to 4.9% in the three months ending in February.
In Japan, the April Jibun Bank Manufacturing Flash PMI rose to 53.3, outpacing expectations, but the April Jibun Bank Services Flash PMI remained unchanged from March’s final reading at 48.3. March exports rose 16.1% y/y and imports rose 5.7% y/y. March consumer prices decreased 0.1% y/y while core-core consumer prices (excluding fresh food and energy) rose 0.3% y/y.
The Week Ahead:
The US and eurozone report their first estimates of Q1 2021 GDP. The eurozone posts March money supply, unemployment and inflation figures. China releases April manufacturing and services PMIs. Japan publishes March industrial production and retail sales. The US Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan meet to set their respective monetary policies.
Source for all data cited is FactSet. This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses the maximum rate applicable to non-resident institutional investors who do not benefit from double taxation treaties. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A risk of loss is involved with investments in stock markets.