Daily Commentary

MarketMinder’s View: Japanese exports to the US bounced back in a big way last month, boosting overall exports in November—another sign of the global economy’s resilience amid President Donald Trump’s tariffs this year. Before getting into the takeaways, we must point out some important distinctions. The article reports November shipments to the US rose 8.8% y/y in value terms, their first rise since March. However, currency skew (tied to a weak yen) and inflation can distort values, so we think Japanese export volumes can better reflect how much trade is occurring. The article actually provides an illustrative example: “The value of car shipments to America increased 1.5% while the number of exported units jumped by 7.7%. That difference has been an ongoing pattern that suggests Japanese automakers are still sacrificing profits by cutting prices to preserve market share.” Besides US tariffs, some worry a recent geopolitical controversy between Japan and its largest trading partner China may knock commerce (November exports to China fell -2.4% y/y in value terms and -14.0% in volume terms, driven by contractions in chip-making machinery). The economists interviewed here don’t think the kerfuffle will derail trade, instead worrying slowing Chinese demand may be a larger factor. That is worth keeping an eye on, though doubts about China’s economic resilience indicate pockets of skepticism persist.

MarketMinder’s View: Our collective answer to the titular question: It depends! What matters more than the medium is the actual information. For more context, a recent Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) poll “found that young adults are increasingly turning to social media for investment advice. A quarter of people surveyed said they use recommendations from social media finfluencers in making investment decisions; among those 35 and younger, it’s 61 percent.” We admire young folks educating themselves and learning how to build wealth, but getting lessons from social media can have some unique challenges. For instance, consider how content in general gets distributed on social media. “The influencer’s primary goal is often to produce viral content to boost views and expand their follower count. This encourages them to use sensational claims and manipulate your emotions. For instance, they make people feel like fools if they aren’t investing in cryptocurrency. But the volatility of cryptocurrency makes it unsuitable for many investors. It has also become a favorite for fraudsters because it’s so hyped online and attracts investors, especially young adults, who fear they will miss out on the next great investing opportunity.” Fear of missing out (FOMO) can arise among any demographic, but social media can amplify the feeling. The Internet has many resources, but good ol’ fashioned due diligence and research go a long way to ensuring the information you consume is actually beneficial.

MarketMinder’s View: For all the negativity we have seen around France’s economy in recent months (mostly surrounding the country’s budget blues), the latest government projections suggest reality may be a bit better than many think. National statistics agency Insee projects French GDP will rise 0.2% q/q in Q4 2025 and 0.3% in both Q1 and Q2 2026. “The statistics agency based its forecasts on a combination of the government’s initial budget proposals and amendments on which it sees consensus between the minority government and parliament. [Insee economist Dorian] Roucher said the outcome in that scenario is a smaller drag on business margins and household spending in the very short term compared to earlier plans.” That isn’t gangbusters, and even near-term projections aren’t perfect—unexpected one-off events can throw off the best-laid predictions. But projections for ongoing French GDP growth reflect some acknowledgment that France’s political uncertainty isn’t a huge economic headwind.