Daily Commentary

MarketMinder’s View: Coming at Q3’s end, Q2 UK GDP’s upward revision today is ancient news to forward-looking markets, but it does highlight how growth was better than perceived (and which markets saw beforehand). “The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 0.5% rather than the previously estimated 0.4% in the April to June quarter, showing that the UK economy grew at the same pace as the US in the first six months of the year. The economy grew 0.6% in the first quarter.” The discussion herein notes sentiment is warming as the data “suggest that the UK economy was resilient to the effects of the Iran war, the energy price surge and the rise in borrowing costs.” We think brightening moods are justified and are a development for investors to consider going forward. Markets move most on the gap between reality and expectations over the next 3 to 30 months. We still see plenty wall of worry left for stocks to climb—especially outside America—and it is worth monitoring whether the more upbeat interpretation here is an exception or the trend going forward.

MarketMinder’s View: Is banks’ low-deposit-rate cash cow in jeopardy? While the official fed-funds rate has risen, currently hovering at 3.88%, the national average for savings deposit rates is 0.37% (per the St. Louis Fed). The difference in what banks pay depositors and how much they can make lending is large. This spread between banks’ funding costs and lending rates is called their net interest margin (NIM). As highlighted here, some research making the social media rounds recently posits that “people could use [AI] bots to sweep their money into accounts that pay higher interest rates,” biting into banks’ NIMs. Sounds provocative, but there are some important counterpoints to this projection. “For one, banks’ larger institutional clients are largely already doing this as a part of so-called treasury management, which involves moving cash into higher-yielding accounts or using it to pay down debt. Consumer accounts may only have a few thousand dollars in balances, and thus relatively less to gain. There’s also the trust factor. People like having their money somewhere they feel is secure, which is often in the traditional banks they know well. Big banks, for their part, tend to covet customers’ direct-deposits, sticky funds that rarely move or chase rates, while accounting for the chance other deposits are flightier. ‘You’re not going to give your money to some bank you’ve never heard of,’ said Peter Crane of Crane Data, which researches money-market funds.” (As specific companies are mentioned here, please note they are incidental to the broader theme under discussion; MarketMinder doesn’t make individual security recommendations.) Another point to ponder: Couldn’t banks use the same technology to find ways to negate those theoretical lost deposits? As always for investors, what matters is how reality actually shakes out against widely held—and priced-in—views of earnings 3 to 30 months ahead. With AI agents in their infancy, fears (and hopes) of their financial implications are running wild. Developing trends are worth watching, but we generally find AI claims overhyped on both ends of the pessimism-optimism spectrum.

MarketMinder’s View: Here is a reminder about rule changes’ unintended consequences, courtesy of the Land Down Under. “Sydney prices have fallen almost 9% from their February peak, taking the median price in Australia’s biggest city to about A$1.2 million ($840,000), property consultancy Cotality’s Home Value Index showed Thursday. In September, Brisbane posted the largest monthly drop among major cities at 1.5%, just ahead of Sydney’s 1.4%, with the combined capitals reading sliding 1.2%. Australia’s housing market has been pummeled by higher borrowing costs and tax changes in the May budget that curbed concessions for property investors.” As we explored recently, the Australian government has acknowledged the tax changes are playing a role in home values’ decline, as they have made residential real estate rental properties a less enticing investment. The negative consequences are centered on Aussie real estate, not broader Australian capital markets, but this example showcases how rule changes can adversely affect a certain asset class or industry—while also showing projections that these changes would knock stocks were quite wide of the mark. For more, please see our commentary, “Checking In on the Aussie Budget’s Early Effects.”