Daily Commentary

MarketMinder’s View: This article quite obviously dives into politics, so please note we favor no politician or political party, assessing developments solely for their potential market effects. At issue here: There is growing talk of the Senate eliminating the filibuster rule to pass the SAVE America Act and fund the Department of Homeland Security, presently enduring a partial shutdown. Whatever you think of those bills, though, the central issue here is that the Senate, supposedly the more deliberate wing of the US Congress, requires 60 votes to advance non-budget-related legislation past an opposition filibuster. The Republicans don’t have 60 votes to move these measures forward now. But this piece documents one GOP senator’s position on the idea of changing or eliminating the filibuster as a result. For markets, we see potential issues with this eliminating the rule. It would mean much more active legislatures when the president’s party has slim majorities, like today. That isn’t great for stocks, considering such active legislatures create winners and losers, shift the rules of the game midstream and dissuade long-term investment. Still, even with the documented senator’s shift: “The Senate has 53 Republicans, and it would take 51 votes to change the rule. At least four GOP senators have publicly said they oppose such a move: Sens. Thom Tillis of North Carolina, Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Susan Collins of Maine. Moreover, if either party tried to carve out exceptions to the filibuster for favored legislation, the rule likely would effectively end for all legislation.” So we don’t think this change looks likely to happen right now, but more flip-flopping on the issue would make us more concerned.

MarketMinder’s View: TMX Group, operator of Canada’s Toronto Stock Exchange (and itself a publicly traded firm, so please note we don’t make individual security recommendations), is throwing its weight behind a government proposal that would end the country’s current requirement for public firms to report earnings quarterly, mirroring the US. And like some efforts in the US, they want this to apply to all firms. The idea is that this would allow executives to take a longer-term view and management approach than stressing to beat financial targets every three months—replacing this with semi-annual reporting. And, in doing so, regulators and TMX think they will foster more IPOs, capital formation and business investment in new projects, particularly mines. There may be some truth to this, but it is easy to overstate the scope of the problem. For one, IPO very often stands for “It’s Probably Overpriced,” meaning more of them isn’t great for investors—especially because they increase the overall supply of stock, which is a headwind for their performance. Lastly, is stretching a reporting requirement from three to six months really going to change an alleged short-term or cost-concerned mindset among executives? To the extent that actually exists (which we are skeptical of), such a small move seems unlikely to prove a sea change. For more, see our 9/18/2025 commentary, “Fine Solution Seeks Material Problem.”

MarketMinder’s View: In response to rising US prices at the pump, President Donald Trump is reportedly considering issuing a 30-day emergency waiver of the Jones Act, the 126-year-old requirement that only US-built ships can transport goods from one American port to another. The idea is that import-reliant areas like the West Coast (which relies disproportionately on fuel imports from the Persian Gulf) would see some relief from more available shipping capacity, as fuel from the Gulf of Mexico or East Cost moves more easily on foreign-built ships. Fine enough. The Jones Act is and has always been a dumb, protectionist law that does nothing but make the US economy less efficient. But as this article rightly notes, the influence here is likely pretty small as it pertains to gas prices today. After all, crude oil prices heavily sway movement in gasoline, and a significant portion is also state taxes. We are all for any change that would make the US economy more efficient. But this isn’t a gamechanger. Now, all that being said, gas prices are a fairly small slice of US consumption, so even the uptick we have seen lately is unlikely to fundamentally hammer stocks or economic growth.