Fisher Investments recaps the biggest market, political and economic news from last week, including US unemployment data, eurozone Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) readings and Japanese July preliminary industrial production figures.
In the US, the August Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 53.1, slightly less than estimates, while the Services PMI jumped to 55.0, beating forecasts (readings above 50 indicate expansion). The August ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 56.0, exceeding expectations and reaching its highest level since November 2018. The August ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI fell to 56.9, missing forecasts. July import and export values rose 10.9% m/m and 8.1% m/m, respectively. August nonfarm payrolls increased by 1.37 million and the unemployment rate fell to 8.4% from 10.2% in July, better than expected.
In the eurozone, the August Markit Manufacturing and Services PMIs came in at 51.7 and 50.5, respectively—largely in line with initial estimates. July retail sales fell 1.3% m/m but increased 0.4% y/y. The July unemployment rate rose to 7.9%, slightly less than forecast. In the UK, the August Markit/CIPS Manufacturing and Services PMIs rose to 55.2 and 58.8, respectively—both less than initial estimates.
In Japan, the Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI rose to 47.2, higher than forecast, while the Services PMI fell to 45.0, in line with expectations. July preliminary industrial production and retail sales fell 16.1% y/y and 2.8% y/y, respectively. The July unemployment rate rose slightly to 2.9%, though less than forecast. In China, the August Markit/Caixin Manufacturing and Services PMIs came in at 53.1 and 54.0, respectively—both beating expectations.
The Week Ahead
The US releases August inflation figures. The eurozone reports its third estimate of Q2 2020 GDP and the European Central Bank meets to set monetary policy. The UK announces July industrial and manufacturing production as well as trade data. China releases August trade and inflation figures. Japan reports August bank lending and its second reading of Q2 2020 GDP.
Tip of the Week:
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Source for all data cited is FactSet. This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses the maximum rate applicable to non-resident institutional investors who do not benefit from double taxation treaties. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A risk of loss is involved with investments in stock markets.