In the US, July core consumer prices (excluding food and energy) rose 2.4% y/y, slightly above expectations. Meanwhile, producer prices grew 3.3% y/y, just shy of the consensus forecast. The Q2 2018 S&P 500 earnings season is winding down and more than 75% of companies have beat earnings targets (with just over 90% of companies reporting). We will report final results once all companies have reported.
European data releases were light. German industrial production contracted 0.9% m/m in June, missing expectations. However, June industrial production in Spain and France rose 0.5% y/y and 0.6% m/m, respectively. In the UK, the first estimate of Q2 2018 GDP growth was reported up 0.4% q/q, beating expectations. Industrial production grew 0.4% m/m in June, rebounding after May’s decline. June export and import values rose 2.7% m/m and 0.2% m/m, respectively.
In Japan, the first estimate of Q2 2018 GDP registered 0.5% q/q growth, ahead of expectations. Bank lending grew 2.0% y/y in July, below the 2.3% y/y forecast. In China, July consumer prices rose 2.1% y/y, slightly higher than estimates. July import and export values grew 27.3% y/y and 12.2% y/y, respectively—beating expectations and showing little impact from escalating tariff rhetoric.
The US and China release July industrial production figures, while the eurozone and Japan report the same for June. The US, UK and China report July retail sales. The UK posts June unemployment and July inflation data. The eurozone releases its second estimate of Q2 2018 GDP and reports July inflation data.
Source for all data cited is FactSet. This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses a Luxembourg tax basis. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A risk of loss is involved with investments in stock markets.