Daily Commentary

MarketMinder’s View: US consumer confidence unexpectedly brightened in March as “The Conference Board’s gauge increased to 91.8, from a revised 91 reading in February, data out Tuesday showed. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a reading of 87.9.” Broader perspective, though, provides critical context. “The Conference Board’s index generally focuses on labor-market conditions, whereas a separate metric of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan emphasizes views about personal finances and the cost of living. The cutoff for this month’s survey was March 24, more than three weeks into the war.” While business and labor market conditions improved (as of last week), more than offsetting deteriorating six-month-forward expectations, that mostly just tells you how Americans were feeling in the recent past—about their jobs. But labor-market conditions themselves are backward looking and offer no foresight into people’s prospects. Meanwhile, March’s University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey slumped -5.8% m/m to its lowest level this year (per UMich), highlighting how sentiment surveys can vary based on the questions. The upshot for investors? At Q1’s end, consumers’ aggregate self-assessments suggest they are holding up fine but dreading the future as energy prices spiked and Iran uncertainty weighs. That isn’t hugely shocking, but we think it does leave plenty of upside surprise if the conflict—and associated cost pressures—end sooner than most contemplate.

MarketMinder’s View: South Korea’s March “Preliminary trade data released on Wednesday showed outbound shipments from Asia’s fourth-largest economy jumped 48.3 per cent year-on-year to a record $86.13 billion. The figure beat market expectations of a 44.9 per cent rise in a Reuters poll and marked a sharp acceleration from February’s 28.7 per cent increase. It was the strongest growth since August 1988.” South Korean trade with titular “West Asia” (i.e., the Middle East) did take a hit, likely due to the conflict, as “Shipments to the region fell sharply by 49.1 per cent, highlighting the immediate impact of geopolitical instability on demand and logistics.” But consider the bigger picture as stocks do: “Exports to key markets remained robust. Shipments to China surged 64.2 per cent, while exports to the United States and the European Union rose 47.1 per cent and 19.3 per cent, respectively, reflecting resilient global demand for technology products.” Regional conflict can and does affect local markets, but as Korea’s bellwether tech trade shows, global generally swamps local.

MarketMinder’s View: We agree the global economy turned out more resilient than most feared following April 2’s Liberation Day tariff announcement last year. Though “trade shifted substantially,” world exports hit record highs in volume and value last year. This was partly driven by AI-related shipments despite “controls on both exports and imports of some of this equipment,” and those shipments show no signs of slowing this year. How did global trade persist despite American tariffs? “China’s exports of intermediate and capital goods rose by $223bn in 2025, more than offsetting a reduction of $130bn in exports to the US. ... Overall, direct US-China trade fell by around 30 per cent in 2025. But the US replaced about two-thirds of the lost imports with purchases from other exporters, while Chinese exporters of consumer goods, such as electric cars and toys, cut prices by an average of 8 per cent to find new buyers. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations countries’ exports thrived in this new world.” Lastly, regarding trade restrictions, “[US President Donald] Trump’s bark was worse than his bite. ... he did not do all that he threatened.” Meanwhile, “his actions led neither to a cycle of retaliation against the US nor, crucially, to imitation of the aggressive US repudiation of World Trade Organization commitments and norms.” The concluding paragraphs discuss America’s future role in the world, which reeks of political bias and speculation—we suggest readers focus on the largely fine trade observations. Global commerce’s resilience is a big reason why world stocks rallied hard after last April’s correction: Reality exceeded dour sentiment. Keep this in mind with Iran fears swirling now.