Daily Commentary

MarketMinder’s View: As the title suggests, this piece delves into two recent UK surveys: One showing new hiring fell in December and the other reflecting mostly negative moods among British business owners. And while the coverage and details here are fine, we quibble with the article’s forward-looking tone. For example, one corporate executive quoted herein views December’s weak hiring as a sign companies are showing restraint to offset today’s rising costs and uncertainty, noting this caution likely lingers into 2026. But employment decisions reflect past economic conditions—so December’s hiring numbers likely reflect some economic weakness from 2025, not weakness to come. What about the notion falling business optimism is further reason for worry? “However, Make UK said the survey also signalled that the significant increases in business costs, especially on employment and energy, were threatening to reach ‘a tipping point whereby investment plans will be cancelled or shifted overseas.’” But surveys aren’t predictive, either—they reflect how respondents feel in the moment. Feelings can change! Therefore, we wouldn’t go too far in assessing any economic outcomes here. If anything, this is more evidence that sentiment remains low in the UK.

MarketMinder’s View: Here is a sobering lesson about liquidity and the importance of understanding what exactly you’re buying. “Across Canada, investors who poured billions into private real estate funds suddenly can’t touch their money. Stung by a deep downturn in the country’s housing market, many of the funds have restricted cash distributions, client withdrawals or both, in a process the industry calls ‘gating.’ Often, the companies don’t say when access will resume.” We highlight this story not to pick on any investor or fund, but because it sheds light on the issue of illiquidity, a major factor worth considering. Because the underlying assets (real estate, in this case) are much harder to sell, the funds discussed here have gate provisions allowing fund managers or other admins to block sales or withdrawals indefinitely. The aim is to prevent forced selling of portfolio properties at firesale prices to meet redemption requests, and it is pretty standard. But it can present a considerable problem if fundholders need to sell and access their cash quickly, say, for a big purchase or emergency use. Mind you, private Canadian real estate funds are a small, niche corner of the market, so we doubt there are broader investor implications here. But it is a useful refresher on a commonly overlooked risk.

MarketMinder’s View: Some positive economic news in Australia, as household consumption rose 1.0% m/m (6.3% y/y) in November—exceeding analysts’ expectations but slowing slightly from October’s upwardly revised 1.4% growth. Services spending’s 7.8% y/y jump helped, as Australians shelled out on concerts, sporting events and other activities, though goods spending also rose, as purchases of furnishings and household equipment and clothing led. Similar to other geographies, we would tune out the central bank speculation here. Monetary policy is never predictable—no matter what data, soundbites or economists’ predictions might suggest. Especially so here, considering the Reserve Bank of Australia’s history of zigzagging on policy. Overall, this is just one better-than-expected—albeit, very backward-looking—economic confirmation that the Land Down Under’s economy chugged along the end of last year.