Daily Commentary

MarketMinder’s View: Since this article mentions some specific investments, we remind readers MarketMinder doesn’t make individual security recommendations. They are incidental to the broader theme we wish to discuss. Though November may have been rocky, especially for some high-flying stocks, “operating earnings at S&P 500 companies should hit an all-time high of $618 billion for the third quarter of 2025, estimates Howard Silverblatt of S&P Dow Jones Indices. That’s up a remarkable 14% over the second quarter, itself a record. And profit margins, he estimates, will set another record, exceeding 13.6%.” Yes, these data are backward-looking, but they do confirm Corporate America was on solid ground last quarter—and it is always worth keeping the fundamentals in mind when short-term negative volatility flares.

MarketMinder’s View: Nothing too eyepopping here. The Institute for Supply Management’s November services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) rose to 52.6 from October’s 52.4. (PMIs above 50 indicate a majority of firms surveyed expanded.) New orders slipped -3.3 points but remained expansionary at 52.9. However, the employment subindex showed contraction for the sixth month straight, although November’s result was the highest of those six. So not only are most services firms—the bulk of the US economy—growing, but they also see more growth ahead with orders climbing. Firms still seem reluctant to hire, in part due to lingering effects from “the government shutdown and customs impacts related to changing tariffs,” but that is a well-worn, backward-looking view at this point and none too relevant for forward-looking markets. About all it signals: Sentiment, though warming, remains far from ecstatic. Bigger picture, especially for those starved of delayed shutdown data, the latest PMI shows business activity in America’s biggest sector ticking along. Overall and on average, Q4 growth appears to be faring fine.

MarketMinder’s View: With more attention on payroll processor ADP’s employment report given the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) delay—it will be out December 16—private firms’ shedding -32,000 workers in November may seem alarming. But as this article sensibly cautions, “When the BLS report arrives later this month, it will present a more comprehensive picture of the job market that also includes the public sector, with data on how the government shutdown and job losses for federal workers shaped overall employment. The government figures are based on an official survey that may reach a broader, more diverse set of companies.” For investors, though, this is water under the bridge. Markets look forward and jobs data reveal only the late-lagging effects of past growth. They are already aware hiring has downshifted this year. Further weakness isn’t shocking. Moreover: “Job losses last month were concentrated among smaller firms: Companies with fewer than 50 workers shed a net 120,000 jobs. Larger companies, by contrast, hired on a net basis—but not enough to overcome that deficit, according to ADP’s data.” This also continues a long-standing trend. And as publicly traded companies tend to be larger, markets have reflected this, too. What matters for stocks isn’t this or next month’s employment, but earnings and economic growth 3 to 30 months out. That isn’t anything ADP or the BLS can tell investors.