Daily Commentary

MarketMinder’s View: Initial jobless claims came in lower than expected last week, falling -10,000 to 214,000—below previous estimates for 224,000. Yet over the same stretch, continuing claims, or the number of people already receiving benefits, rose to 1.92 million, bouncing back from late November’s fall. Perhaps this sounds strange—how can fewer folks file for benefits while the number of existing beneficiaries rises? It is actually quite ordinary. Consider: If layoffs slow broadly—as data have shown—there are typically fewer new initial claims. And if folks already receiving benefits aren’t finding jobs quickly, they stay on the rolls longer, sending continuing claims up. Some call this a “low fire, low hire” environment, which fits the bill here given businesses (especially retailers) tend to finalize headcount before the holiday rush, in a typically bouncy period for hiring data, seasonal adjustments notwithstanding. Now, the article warns recently announced layoffs aren’t yet showing in the data—which may be true. But this is again looking only at the firing side of the ledger and not the hiring side. It is entirely possible that hiring was sufficient to outweigh this, which has held for most of 2025.

MarketMinder’s View: Sometimes you have to read until the end to get the spoiler. Agatha Christie’s And Then There Were None, Dennis Lehane’s Shutter Island, and this piece. Namely, it waits until the final two paragraphs to reveal international trade’s (represented as exports minus imports) big influence on Q3 GDP’s better-than-expected, 4.3% annualized headline growth. That slight critique aside, this is an overall fine look at the data. It accurately points out consumer spending’s 3.5% annualized growth led the way, offsetting business investment’s slowing from Q2’s 7.3% to 2.8%. It also—strangely, in our view—veers into politics and presidential records in the midsection, so please note MarketMinder remains nonpartisan. And after some waffling over false K-shaped economy and AI bubble fears, it acknowledges net trade’s boosting GDP’s headline figure by a whopping 1.6 percentage points—a major factor tied directly to tariffs’ effect on trade, arguably the biggest story in America’s economy this year. We explained this in detail yesterday, but in short—falling imports juiced trade’s contribution, although falling imports aren’t good for the economy outside GDP’s math. Strip this and government spending out, and you see the private sector grew at nearly the same clip as Q2. Fine and all, but not so strong as the headline might suggest.

MarketMinder’s View: International trade undeniably faced myriad moving parts and uncertainty this year amid President Donald Trump’s tariffs, dealmaking and more. Jumping off from there, this article suggests four factors—the US, Mexico and Canada reviewing their trade agreement, recovering Red Sea/Suez Canal trade overwhelming European ports, the stability of this year’s trade deals and potential tariff refunds tied to the ongoing court challenge—could spin global trade anew. All these are valid considerations, with the possible exception of the Red Sea stuff, which largely spins a positive (fewer attacks on ships by Houthi rebels) as a negative. For the other three though, none of this is sneaking up on stocks. These factors have been in the news for weeks now, so stocks have likely already priced them in. And businesses have found myriad workarounds, perhaps illustrated by adaptations to Red Sea attacks and tariffs, which have kept trade flowing. While there always could be future disruptions, those illustrated here are likely already on businesses’ bingo cards for 2026, and known factors stir less uncertainty than unknown or worse-than-feared ones like the Liberation Day tariffs.