US data were mixed. The January Markit services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) was unchanged from its previous estimate at 54.2 and the January ISM non-manufacturing PMI came in at 56.7—both still indicating expansion. Initial jobless claims declined to 234,000 in the week ending February 2. Additionally, a few November data points were released at a lag due to the government shutdown. November durable goods orders rose 0.7% m/m, slightly below expectations. November exports and imports decreased 0.6% and 2.9%, respectively.
European data were also mixed. The January eurozone Markit services PMI was revised up slightly to 51.2, exceeding expectations. December retail sales increased 0.8% y/y, beating consensus estimates for 0.5% y/y. In the UK, the January CIPS/Markit services and construction PMIs fell to 50.1 and 50.6 respectively, both below estimates but still signaling economic growth. As expected, the Bank of England left monetary policy unchanged.
Japan’s January Nikkei services PMI rose to 51.6 from 51.0 the month before. January bank lending rose 2.4% y/y, in line with expectations. In China, the Caixin services PMI came in at 53.6 in January—higher than forecasts.
The US announces January retail sales, inflation and industrial production. The eurozone releases the second estimate of Q4 2018 GDP and December industrial production. The UK reports January inflation figures, December industrial production and trade data and the first estimate of Q4 2018 GDP. Japanese releases include December retail sales, industrial production and the first estimate of Q4 2018 GDP. China reports January inflation, lending and trade data.
Source for all data cited is FactSet. This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses a Luxembourg tax basis. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A risk of loss is involved with investments in stock markets.