Daily Commentary

MarketMinder’s View: While this article is technically an announcement of the columnist’s latest monthly book club pick (and we haven’t read the book), it also sheds some light on a difficult and important issue many folks will have to deal with: helping with or outright overseeing their aging parents’ finances. This complex task tends to occur at the most emotionally difficult times, magnifying the potential pitfalls (e.g., not being able to access accounts when the bills are due). If you know you will need to eventually help aging parents but wait until that lifechanging medical emergency happens to start getting their ducks in a row, you will always be four steps behind. So we heartily agree that the more you can work with them to sort things out in advance, the better it will be for them (and you). “As best you can, get an inventory of your loved one’s assets to identify how you can access cash if needed. Once a person passes away, bank accounts are often frozen, potentially cutting you off from the funds to handle their final affairs. You’ll need a plan for bridge money to cover pressing costs like keeping the rent current while you clear out an apartment or paying for funeral expenses before the estate is legally settled and the rest of the money is released.” We would also note that it may be beneficial to explore getting power of attorney—and if so, to take the time to determine which kind is most suited to your situation. Some take effect only if the principal is deemed incapacitated, which can present hurdles if you need to be able to take over and pay the bills in a pinch. The more legwork you and your parents do in advance, the more you will be able to help them and be fully present with them in the difficult times when they need you most.

MarketMinder’s View: Friendly reminder, folks: Valuations don’t predict performance. Not at the broad market level. Not at the sector level. Not at the company level. (Speaking of which, MarketMinder doesn’t make individual security recommendations and features this article for the broader theme only.) So no, Energy stocks aren’t suddenly a screaming buy just because their price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are down and lower than other sectors, as the article alleges. Heck, the article even includes the breadcrumbs proving the point: “True, the sector was trading at high multiples before the conflict began. Even so, the selloff in energy equities puts the group at less than 14 times forward earnings, making it 36% cheaper than the overall index. That is steeper than its 29% discount on average over the past decade.” Sooooo ... Energy has been cheaper than the market for a decade. And you know what else it did during that decade? Lag global stocks by almost 100 percentage points over the trailing 10 years through yesterday’s close (using MSCI World Index and MSCI World Energy returns with net dividends in USD, per FactSet). As for those high pre-conflict P/E ratios, that reflected a big run in Energy stocks as they and oil pre-priced the rising likelihood of war and supply disruptions. Since Energy’s high on March 27, we think the sector has been un-pricing all of that fear and discounting the high likelihood of a relatively benign supply landscape over the next 3 – 30 months as the conflict resolves, the Strait of Hormuz reopens and new supply sources bear more fruit. Which gets to the main problem here: P/Es look backward, reflecting past performance and either old earnings or earnings forecasts markets have already priced in, depending on the measure used. Markets look forward, weighing how things are likely to unfold relative to what is already priced over the next 3 – 30 months. Having some Energy exposure is fine for diversification, but valuations aren’t a valid reason to load up.

MarketMinder’s View: Remember all those fears about rising US household debt delinquencies and how tapped-out consumers would have to pull back? Looks like the opposite happened in Q1. While we learned last month that consumer spending contributed nicely to US GDP, the New York Fed’s latest reports show households weren’t broadly choosing between groceries and paying the mortgage. While total delinquencies held steady, “the pace of transitions into new delinquencies edged down for most categories with the exception of auto loans and home equity lines of credit, the report showed. Student loans continued to show serious stress, with 11% falling into early delinquency, but that was an improvement from 16% in the fourth quarter of 2025. Overall, the pace of loans falling into serious delinquency—more than 90 days overdue—also slowed.” As for student loans, “New York Fed researchers said they found the average student loan borrower who is entering default is nearly 40 years old, was not delinquent prior to the pandemic and is more likely to live in the South. ‘While defaulted borrowers are more likely to be past due on other forms of debt, the overall scope of student loan defaults is still relatively low, suggesting that fears of broader contagion to other credit products are premature,’ researchers said.” That is an interesting note to be sure. People may not consciously get over this fear, but markets see and rise on the gap between sentiment and reality—climbing the wall of worry.