Daily Commentary

MarketMinder’s View: Based on a handful of recent public statements, including one from the titular Fed Chair, this piece suggests America’s central bank hasn’t been this divided on policy since Jerome Powell took office in February 2018. The rift is supposedly tied to President Donald Trump’s tariffs, and given the Fed’s dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and price stability, “Some Fed officials want to continue to focus on reining in higher prices, believing tariffs could jack up inflation. Other policymakers say it’s time to prioritize a weakening labor market.” Now, we will get a little more insight into these differences on Wednesday, when the Fed’s October minutes are set to be released, but we also think all the speculative handwringing is a bit overstated. One, having consensus isn’t always and everywhere a positive—it isn’t exactly reassuring if everyone was wrong together. Two, historical Fed transcripts show a lot of dissent lurks underneath “consensus.” Three, consensus or not, Fed (and all central bank) policy has long been unpredictable. This isn’t new—the Fed’s 12 voting members have a history of saying one thing and doing another, and each interprets data and other economic developments in their own way. Moreover, monetary policy is just one factor influencing America’s massive economy, and it tends to hit at a lag with no preset market effect. Fed unanimity is mostly a myth, and it certainly isn’t necessary for investors to reach their long-term goals and objectives. Thinking otherwise sharply overrates the Fed’s influence over the economy and stocks.

MarketMinder’s View: While Thanksgiving is less than two weeks away, you have likely started receiving emails from retailers touting Black Friday sales already—so in that spirit, here is some useful advice from our friends across the pond (who imported Black Friday from the States not long ago). Cybercriminals are always adapting and refining their methods, so remaining aware of potential threats is the best way to ensure your shopping budget is going where you intend. According to one industry expert quoted here, shoppers ought to watch for three main scams this year: fake retail websites, delivery scams and social media scams. And as with most fraud we have observed over the years, they share several key traits. “One of the biggest giveaways of a Black Friday scam lies in the language being used. ‘Fraudsters don’t just understand technology; they understand people,’ warned [cybersecurity CEO Jemma] Davis. ‘They use the same techniques that drive advertising: scarcity, urgency, and social proof. “Only three left”, “Offer ends soon”, “Thousands already sold”. These phrases create emotional shortcuts.’” Bad actors aim to capitalize on these emotions, getting their victims to act quickly before thinking. So it is usually a good idea to approach any purchase with some patience and skepticism. Feel free to share this with friends, family and other loved ones—taking a careful approach to your online shopping will help you enjoy a fraud-free holiday season.

MarketMinder’s View: This article centers on some potential policy shifts in the European Union, so please note MarketMinder is nonpartisan, preferring no party, politician or policy. We assess these developments solely for their potential market and/or economic effects. Said policy includes plans to scale back the EU’s strict regulation on the world’s largest Tech companies (many of which are mentioned here, so a quick reminder that MarketMinder doesn’t make individual security recommendations), which has weighed on innovation and increased costs. The European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, will unveil the plans later this week. “According to drafts circulated in recent weeks, which were reviewed by The New York Times, key aspects of the General Data Protection Regulation, or G.D.P.R., a data privacy law, would be rewritten. Parts of a law restricting certain uses of A.I. would also be delayed.” Now, as the article also acknowledges, it remains to be seen how far this policy shift will go. “The proposals, already the target of heavy lobbying from Silicon Valley and other interest groups, are relatively narrow. But they reflect a growing belief in Brussels that changes are needed to revive Europe’s competitiveness. … The changes may not happen for months, as they require approval from the European Parliament and a substantial majority of countries in the European Union.” That last part is key: Proposed policy isn’t implemented policy. But regulatory changes are worth keeping an eye on, so we will monitor closely.