In the US, data reports were generally positive. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) rose 0.5% m/m in June, signaling continued expansion ahead. June industrial and manufacturing production increased 3.8% y/y and 1.9% y/y, respectively—both beating expectations. June retail sales rose 6.6% y/y, better than forecast. Volatile housing starts declined 12.3% m/m in June after rising 4.8% in May.
European data were mixed. In the eurozone, June core-consumer prices (excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) rose 0.9% y/y, slightly below expectations. May imports increased 0.7% y/y, while exports decreased 0.8% y/y. In the UK, June retail sales fell 0.5% m/m but increased 2.9% y/y. June core-consumer prices (excluding energy and food) rose 1.9% y/y, lower than the 2.1% y/y increase in May and below estimates. The May unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2%.
In Asia, Japan’s core-core consumer prices (excluding energy and food) rose 0.2% y/y in June, slightly below estimates. June import and export values increased 2.5% y/y and 6.7% y/y respectively, both below expectations. In China, June retail sales rose 9.0% y/y, slightly higher than forecast. June industrial production grew 6.0% y/y, slowing from the previous month and missing expectations. Q2 2018 GDP increased 6.7% y/y, meeting expectations.
US and eurozone data releases include July manufacturing and services Flash Purchasing Mangers’ Indexes (PMIs). The US also reports June new home sales, durable goods orders and the first estimate of Q2 2018 GDP. The eurozone posts June money supply and loan growth data as well. The European Central Bank meets to set monetary policy. Japan announces the July Nikkei manufacturing Flash PMI.
Source for all data cited is FactSet. This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses a Luxembourg tax basis. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A risk of loss is involved with investments in stock markets.