Fisher Investments recaps the biggest market, political and economic news from last week, including US, UK, eurozone, Japanese and Chinese Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) readings, UK Q1 2021 GDP figures and Japanese trade data.
In the US, the final June Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) was revised down to 62.1 from the preliminary reading of 62.6—matching the previous month’s reading. PMI readings above 50 indicate expansion. May final durable goods orders rose 2.3% m/m, unchanged from the initial estimate. May exports and imports increased 0.6% m/m and 1.3% m/m, respectively. June nonfarm payrolls rose by 662,000, higher than forecasts, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 5.9%, missing expectations.
In the eurozone, the final June Markit Manufacturing PMI was revised up to 63.4, exceeding forecasts. June unemployment declined to 7.9%, beating expectations of 8.1%. May core consumer prices (excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) rose 1.9% y/y, in line with expectations and easing slightly from May’s 2.0% y/y increase. In the UK, the final reading of Q1 2021 GDP showed a 1.6% q/q and 6.1% y/y decline. The final June Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI was revised down to 63.9 but remains near multi-year highs.
In Japan, the final June Markit/Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI was 52.4. May imports and exports rose 27.9% y/y and 49.6% y/y, respectively, both in line with expectations. May retail sales increased 8.2% y/y while preliminary industrial production declined 5.9% m/m—both missing estimates. The unemployment rate rose to 3.0% in May, slightly higher than expected. In China, the official June NBS Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs—focused on large, state-owned firms—came in at 50.9 and 53.5, respectively. The June Markit/Caixin Manufacturing PMI—which includes smaller businesses—was 51.3, below forecasts.
The Week Ahead:
The US, UK, eurozone, Japan and China report final June services PMIs. The eurozone releases May retail sales figures. The UK announces May industrial production and trade data. China releases June money supply growth and inflation.
Source for all data cited is FactSet. This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses the maximum rate applicable to non-resident institutional investors who do not benefit from double taxation treaties. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A risk of loss is involved with investments in stock markets.