Fisher Investments recaps the biggest market, political and economic news from last week, including US consumer prices, UK GDP and Chinese trade data.
Global markets were up slightly. In the US, data reported for May were light, but mostly positive. Consumer and core-consumer prices (excluding food and energy) grew 1.8% y/y and 2.0% y/y, respectively—both below estimates. Retail sales increased 0.5% m/m and 3.2% y/y. Industrial production expanded 0.4% m/m and 2.0% y/y while May manufacturing production rose 0.2% m/m and 0.7% y/y.
In the eurozone, April industrial production fell 0.5% m/m and 0.4% y/y. In the UK, April 2019 GDP expanded 1.3% y/y, missing expectations. April industrial production fell 2.7% m/m and 1.0% y/y—both below forecasts. The unemployment rate remained at 3.8% in April, in line with forecasts. April exports and imports declined 4.3% m/m and 9.3% m/m, respectively.
In Japan, April retail sales missed expectations, rising 0.4% y/y. April industrial production increased 0.6% m/m but fell 1.1% y/y. May bank lending increased 2.6% y/y, above expectations. In China, May data was overall positive. Consumer prices expanded 2.7% y/y, matching forecasts. Retail sales grew 8.6% y/y and industrial production rose 5.0% y/y. Likewise, lending increased 13.4% y/y. Exports and imports rose 1.1% y/y and 8.5% y/y, respectively.
The Week Ahead:
The US and eurozone report flash May Markit manufacturing and services Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs). The UK releases May consumer prices and retail sales figures. The eurozone releases April trade and May consumer prices data. Japan reports May consumer prices and trade data, and the June Nikkei flash manufacturing PMI. The Fed and Bank of England meet to set their respective monetary policies.
Source for all data cited is FactSet. This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses the maximum rate applicable to non-resident institutional investors who do not benefit from double taxation treaties. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A risk of loss is involved with investments in stock markets.