Daily Commentary

MarketMinder’s View: IRA rules can be bewildering, and as this article notes, if you make wrong moves, there are often ways to remedy errors. But not always! Knowing which decisions are irreversible can save you future headaches, and this piece shares four undoable mistakes. We will highlight one here: Don’t take a nonspouse beneficiary rollover. “For nonspouse beneficiaries to move inherited IRA assets while preserving their tax treatment, they must move the money directly from one custodian to another in a direct transfer. If the money is paid to the beneficiary instead, the taxable portion of the distribution becomes income. Some custodians may be reluctant to do a direct transfer, but this should be a priority. ... When moving an inherited IRA as a nonspouse beneficiary, make clear to both financial institutions that you want a direct transfer.” Read on for more details and the other titular mistakes, and if you have further IRA questions, be sure to ask a wealth management professional. The more you know!

MarketMinder’s View: Coming at Q3’s end, Q2 UK GDP’s upward revision today is ancient news to forward-looking markets, but it does highlight how growth was better than perceived (and which markets saw beforehand). “The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 0.5% rather than the previously estimated 0.4% in the April to June quarter, showing that the UK economy grew at the same pace as the US in the first six months of the year. The economy grew 0.6% in the first quarter.” The discussion herein notes sentiment is warming as the data “suggest that the UK economy was resilient to the effects of the Iran war, the energy price surge and the rise in borrowing costs.” We think brightening moods are justified and are a development for investors to consider going forward. Markets move most on the gap between reality and expectations over the next 3 to 30 months. We still see plenty wall of worry left for stocks to climb—especially outside America—and it is worth monitoring whether the more upbeat interpretation here is an exception or the trend going forward.

MarketMinder’s View: Here are the basic facts, which illustrate a central point: Despite Iran’s efforts to close the Strait of Hormuz and hammer the oil market, oil is flowing out of the Gulf region. “Middle Eastern crude exports rebounded this month to around their highest level since the war began in February, oil data trackers say. Shipments via Hormuz and bypass routes were delivering just under 80% of their prewar regional flows as of last week, according to tracker Kpler. So far this month, crude exports from major Middle Eastern producers including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the U.A.E. and others—moving through Hormuz and alternative routes—have risen to almost 13 million barrels a day. That is the highest total since February, when the region exported nearly 19 million barrels a day, according to ship tracker Huax. Saudi Arabia is also starting to pump crude through its damaged East-West pipeline and load it on tankers in the Red Sea, though volumes remain reduced, officials familiar with the operations said. Some of the current output will be destined for domestic refineries, they said.” The article goes on to cast this in a negative light, in the sense that this—plus Iran’s inability to get its own exports past the US naval blockade—could make the Iranian regime more desperate and lead to more attacks on regional neighbors. But we have already seen such strikes, mitigating the surprise power over markets. All in all, this shows the market isn’t as short of oil supply as some have feared throughout the war. This suggests to us presently elevated oil prices’ staying power is likely pretty limited.