Fisher Investments recaps the biggest market, political and economic news from last week, including US, UK, eurozone, Japanese and Chinese Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) figures, UK money supply (M4) growth and US unemployment rate.
In the US, the February Markit Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) were revised higher from initial estimates to 58.6 and 59.8, respectively (readings above 50 signal expansion). The February ISM Manufacturing PMI increased to 60.8, ahead of forecasts, while the Non-Manufacturing PMI decreased to 55.3, missing estimates. February nonfarm payrolls expanded by 379,000, above expectations for 175,000. The February unemployment rate fell to 6.2%, beating consensus forecasts.
In the eurozone, February Markit Manufacturing and Services PMIs were revised higher to 57.9 and 45.7, respectively. January retail sales fell 6.4% y/y and 5.9% m/m, missing consensus forecasts. January’s unemployment rate remained unchanged at 8.1%, beating expectations for a rise to 8.3%. In the UK, the February Markit/CIPS Manufacturing and Services PMIs were 55.1 and 49.5, respectively. Money supply (M4) grew 0.7% m/m in January.
In Japan, the February Jibun Bank Manufacturing and Services PMIs were revised up to 51.4 and 46.3, respectively. January’s unemployment rate fell slightly to 2.9%, beating expectations for no change. In China, the official February NBS Manufacturing and Services PMIs—focused on large, state-owned firms—came in at 50.6 and 50.8, respectively. The February Markit/Caixin Manufacturing and Service PMIs—which include smaller businesses—were 50.9 and 51.5, respectively.
The Week Ahead
The US releases February inflation data. The eurozone announces its third estimate of Q4 2020 GDP. The European Central Bank meets to set monetary policy. The UK and eurozone report January industrial production. Japan announces February loan growth, the January Leading Economic Index (LEI) and its second estimate of Q4 2020 GDP. China reports February trade figures, loan growth, money supply (M2) growth and inflation data.
Source for all data cited is FactSet. This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses the maximum rate applicable to non-resident institutional investors who do not benefit from double taxation treaties. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A risk of loss is involved with investments in stock markets.