Fisher Investments recaps the biggest market, political and economic news from last week, including US trade data, eurzone GDP growth figures and Japanese bank lending.
Global stocks rose amid mixed economic data. In the US, data were mixed. The Conference Board’s January Leading Economic Index (LEI) declined 0.1% m/m, missing forecasts. While this drop may seemingly suggest slowing economic growth, periodic monthly downticks are common in bull markets and economic expansions. Taking a step back, the LEI is still relatively generally high and has risen in 22 of the last 24 months. The Markit February services flash Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 56.2, besting estimates (readings over 50 indicate expansion). The Markit February manufacturing flash PMI fell to 53.7, missing the consensus. Preliminary December durable goods orders excluding transportation rose 0.1% m/m, and preliminary December core capital goods orders fell 0.7% m/m, both missing expectations.
In Europe, economic data were light. In the eurozone, January core consumer prices (excluding food and energy) rose 1.1% y/y, in line with expectations. The Markit February manufacturing flash PMI fell to 49.2, missing the consensus, while the Markit February services flash PMI rose to 52.3, beating expectations.
In Japan, January core-core consumer prices (excluding food and energy) met expectations, rising 0.4% y/y. January exports fell 8.4% y/y, more than expected, while January imports fell 0.6%, less than expected. The Markit February manufacturing flash PMI fell to 48.5, down from the prior reading.
The US reports preliminary Q4 2018 GDP, December wholesale inventories, final December durable orders and final Markit February manufacturing PMI figures. The eurozone releases February inflation data, January money supply and final Markit February manufacturing PMI data. China reports Caixin February manufacturing and services PMI data. Japan releases January preliminary industrial production, retail sales and Nikkei February manufacturing PMI data.
Source for all data cited is FactSet. This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses a Luxembourg tax basis. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A risk of loss is involved with investments in stock markets.