Fisher Investments recaps the biggest market, political and economic news from last week, including US inflation, UK and European industrial production and Chinese money supply.
Global equities rose 2.8% amid mostly positive data releases. In the US, economic data were mostly positive. January retail sales increased 2.3% y/y while durable goods orders increased 0.4% m/m, beating forecasts of decline. Core consumer prices (excluding food and energy) increased 2.1% y/y in February—slightly below market expectations. February industrial and manufacturing production increased 3.5% y/y and 1.0% y/y, respectively.
Eurozone data were light. January industrial production decreased 1.1% y/y, falling less than expected. February core consumer prices (excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) increased 1.0% y/y. In the UK, January 2019 GDP increased 1.4% y/y, ahead of expectations. January industrial and manufacturing production decreased 0.9% y/y and 1.1% y/y, respectively, both beating forecasts. January exports and imports rose 2.3% m/m and 2.8% m/m, respectively. On Tuesday, the UK Parliament rejected Prime Minister Theresa May’s revised Brexit deal for a second time and voted to delay the March 29 deadline on Thursday—which European Union leaders are likely to grant. For markets, this means uncertainty lingers a while longer. While not ideal, this shouldn’t prove too impactful as the country’s economy has continued to grow despite two years of Brexit-related noise. For more, please see our 3/12/2019 MarketMinder article, “What Now for Brexit?”
In Japan, January retail sales grew 0.6% y/y. The Bank of Japan left monetary policy unchanged Friday. In China, retail sales increased 8.2% y/y in January and February, as expected. Industrial production rose 5.3% y/y, slightly behind forecasts. February money supply increased 8.0% y/y while lending increased 13.4% y/y.
The Week Ahead:
The US and eurozone report March Markit services and manufacturing flash Purchasing Managers’ Indexes. The UK releases the January unemployment rate and February core consumer prices. The Fed and the Bank of England announce their interest rate decisions. Japan releases February core consumer prices and trade data.
Source for all data cited is FactSet. This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses the maximum rate applicable to non-resident institutional investors who do not benefit from double taxation treaties. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A risk of loss is involved with investments in stock markets.