Daily Commentary

MarketMinder’s View: Don’t look now, but there are only two and a half months left in the year, and some important dates are upon us. For instance, the enrollment period for 2026 Medicare coverage started today, and as this article details, there are some big changes worth noting—especially for those with private Medicare plans (known as Medicare Advantage). Because Medicare insurers are seeing higher costs, they are passing some of them on to plan participants. For example, “Medicare Advantage companies are increasing the maximum out-of-pocket cost in many of their plans. ... To figure out where the bite will come, you want to focus on the documents that describe each plan. For your current plan, you should have received an Annual Notice of Change, describing next year’s tweaks.” Not only could you be charged more, “At least 1.2 million Medicare Advantage enrollees are likely to lose their current plans next year because the plans are being eliminated, according to Healthpilot, a brokerage that offers Medicare plans. Big Medicare insurers are paring back their preferred provider organization designs, known as PPOs, while bolstering their more-restrictive health maintenance organization plans, known as HMOs. HMOs often don’t pay for care you get from doctors and hospitals outside their approved networks, which can be limited. PPOs typically give patients more freedom.” If you are tired of the runaround, like one Medicare Advantage user describes it, “consider opting for traditional Medicare, which tends to include nearly every hospital and doctor. But if you do, you will likely need a special product called a Medicare supplement, or Medigap, and that can be expensive, or even impossible, to get. If you don’t get a Medigap soon after you first age into Medicare at 65, you might be refused, or pay higher rates, based on your pre-existing health conditions.” Read on for more and remember: Forewarned is forearmed!

MarketMinder’s View: The Census Bureau’s retail sales report for September is likely to be delayed due to the government shutdown, but all isn’t lost! “The Chicago Fed Advance Retail Trade Summary estimated that retail sales excluding autos and parts increased by a seasonally adjusted 0.5% last month after advancing 0.7% in August. ... CARTS is meant to offer an early read for the official monthly retail sales data, excluding automobiles, produced by the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau. The comprehensive retail sales report, scheduled for release on Thursday, has been delayed by the government shutdown, now in its third week. When adjusted for inflation, retail sales excluding autos are projected to have risen only 0.2% last month after increasing 0.3% in August. CARTS’ projections are broadly in line with most estimates from independent economists and other surveys.” Like the official report, this is backward looking, and retail sales don’t reflect most personal consumption expenditures (which are mainly services). But the other spending measures here are a helpful pencil sketch. Now, the piece spends a good amount of pixels on how “Retail sales and consumer spending growth continue to be driven by higher-income households,” but that is sociology, which markets don’t primarily dwell on. Stocks are cold-hearted and care more about the big picture: overall economic growth’s contribution to earnings over the next 3 to 30 months. Who is doing the spending isn’t as consequential for markets. For more on why, please see, “So Go the Top Earners, So Goes the Economy?”

MarketMinder’s View: Tensions were on tenterhooks ahead of a 20-year Japanese government bond (JGB) auction, fearing fallout from the ruling coalition’s recent split. But while sentiment can sway bonds just like stocks (though usually more moderately), what matters most for investors is that borrowers pay the money back with interest. On that score, the JGB auction passed with flying colors: “Japan’s first sale of government bonds since the ruling political coalition crumbled drew firm demand as higher yields attracted investors, bringing more comfort to global debt markets. A key gauge of demand at the 20-year auction Wednesday was above the 12-month average for that tenor. The sale follows two smooth offerings last week, pointing to an easing funding environment in Japan even amid political turmoil.” While we don’t yet know the configuration of Japan’s government, it doesn’t seem to be affecting JGB demand much. “The bid-to-cover ratio came in at 3.56, compared with 4 at the previous auction and an average of 3.25 over the past year.” That is, demand for the new 20-year JGB issues was more than three times the amount on offer. Reality exceeds expectations once again, more global bull market fuel.