Global equity markets rose 1.3% amid a holiday-shortened week in the US.
In the US, the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) rose 1.2% m/m in October, better than expected. Additionally, September’s LEI reading was revised up to 0.1% m/m from -0.2% m/m. A rising LEI is a good indication recession isn’t likely soon. October durable goods orders fell 1.2% m/m, missing estimates. November Markit manufacturing and services Flash Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) fell to 53.8 and 54.7, respectively (readings above 50 indicate expansion)—both below expectations.
European data were positive. Germany’s Q3 2017 GDP expanded 2.8% y/y. November eurozone Markit manufacturing and services Flash PMIs rose to 60.0 and 56.2, respectively. In the UK, the second estimate of Q3 2017 GDP confirmed a 1.5% y/y growth rate.
In Japan, October export and import values rose 14.0% y/y and 18.9% y/y, respectively—both below estimates. Eleven countries, including Japan, agreed on the core elements of a multilateral trade pact, called the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which intends to replace the failed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). CPTPP has a number of hurdles to overcome but, if ratified, would cover about 15% of global trade and represent an incremental positive for participating countries.
US data releases include the Institute for Supply Management’s November manufacturing and services PMIs, October new home sales and trade. The eurozone posts November inflation data, October loan growth and the October unemployment rate. The UK releases the November Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI. Japan reports October retail sales, industrial production and inflation data. China releases November manufacturing and services PMIs.
Source for all data cited is FactSet. This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses a Luxembourg tax basis. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A risk of loss is involved with investments in stock markets.