Fisher Investments recaps the biggest market, political and economic news from last week, including US GDP growth, eurozone core inflation and Japanese industrial production and retail sales.
Global equities rose in a US holiday-shortened trading week amid few data releases and scant major geopolitical news. In the US, the second estimate of Q3 2019 GDP was reported up 2.1% q/q, slightly higher than estimated. October new home sales were announced at 733,000—above estimates but slightly down from September. October building permits were revised up slightly to 1,461,000 and remain steady the prior month. Durable goods orders rose 0.6% m/m in October, beating forecasts for a 0.5% decline. For more on recent US economic data, please see our 11/29/2019 commentary, “Economic Growth to Be Thankful For.”
In the UK, headlines focused on the December 12 parliamentary elections and potential impact on Brexit. October money supply (M4) was unchanged from September but increased 3.6% y/y. In Europe, initial readings of November core inflation (excluding food and energy) showed a 1.3% increase. October money supply (M3) grew 5.6% y/y.
Japanese industrial production and retail sales decreased 4.2% m/m and 14.4% m/m respectively in October, both lower than forecast. October imports and exports fell 14.8% y/y and 9.2% respectively, compared with expectations of 14.8% y/y and 10.4% y/y declines. Housing starts fell 7.4% in October, accelerating down from September.
The Week Ahead:
The US, UK, eurozone, Japan and China release manufacturing and services PMIs for November. The US also releases November unemployment and payroll data.
Source for all data cited is FactSet. This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses the maximum rate applicable to non-resident institutional investors who do not benefit from double taxation treaties. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A risk of loss is involved with investments in stock markets.