Fisher Investments recaps the biggest market, political and economic news from last week, including eurozone November Markit Manufacturing and Services PMIs, UK October money supply (M4) and US unemployment figures.
In the US, the final November Markit Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMI) were 58.3 and 58.0, respectively (readings over 50 indicate expansion). Final October durable goods orders decreased 0.4% m/m. November nonfarm payrolls increased by 210,000—well below expectations. The unemployment rate fell to 4.2% in November, beating forecasts. On Tuesday, US Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified before Congress. Many speculate when the Fed will begin hiking interest rates, however, we caution investors against trying to predict future Fed policy changes. For more, please see our 12/02/2021 commentary “Fedspeak Is Dead Long Live Fedspeak”
In the eurozone, the final November Markit Manufacturing and Services PMIs were 58.4 and 55.9, respectively—slightly below expectations. October unemployment fell to 7.3%. Retail sales rose 0.2% m/m and 1.4% y/y in October. In the UK, the final November Markit/CIPS Manufacturing and Services PMIs were revised slightly downward to 58.1 and 58.5, respectively. October money supply (M4) grew 0.6% m/m.
In Japan, the final November Jibun Bank Manufacturing and Services PMIs were 54.5 and 53.0, respectively. Preliminary October retail sales rose 0.9% y/y. Preliminary October industrial production increased 1.1% m/m but decreased 4.7% y/y—both below forecasts. The October unemployment rate fell to 2.7%. In China, the final November Caixin Manufacturing and Services PMIs were 49.9 and 52.1, respectively.
The Week Ahead:
The US reports October trade data and November inflation data. The eurozone announces its third estimate of Q3 2021 GDP. The UK releases October industrial productions figures. Japan reports November bank lending and its final Q3 2021 GDP reading. China reports November inflation and trade data.
Source for all data cited is FactSet. This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses the maximum rate applicable to non-resident institutional investors who do not benefit from double taxation treaties. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A risk of loss is involved with investments in stock markets.