Fisher Investments recaps the biggest market, political and economic news from last week, including US and Chinese inflation data, eurozone, UK and Japanese industrial production readings, and UK unemployment figures.
In the US, September retail sales increased 0.7% m/m, surpassing estimates. September core consumer prices (excluding food and energy) rose 4.0% y/y and 0.2% m/m, close to consensus estimates for both. We think it remains more telling to look past the big year-over-year inflation numbers that inspire most coverage and focus instead on the month-over-month data, which indicate moderating inflation pressures. For more, please see our 10/13/2021 commentary, “Shhh … Elevated Inflation Rates Still Look Transitory.” Initial jobless claims fell to 293,000 in the week ending October 9, well below market expectations. This was the first time initial jobless claims fell below 300,000 since the pandemic began.
In the eurozone, August industrial production rose 5.1% y/y, slightly ahead of expectations. In the UK, August industrial production rose 3.7% y/y, exceeding consensus estimates. Manufacturing production increased 4.1% y/y in August, as anticipated. The unemployment rate fell to 4.5% for the three months ending in August, on par with estimates.
In Japan, August industrial production rose 8.8% y/y, below expectations. Bank lending rose 0.6% y/y in September. In China, September consumer prices rose 0.7% y/y, below expectations. September exports grew 28.1% y/y, well above estimates, while imports increased 17.6% y/y, less than forecast. September money supply (M2) and total lending rose 8.3% y/y and 11.9% y/y respectively.
The Week Ahead:
The US, eurozone, and Japan report preliminary October purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs). The Conference Board releases its US Leading Economic Index reading for September. The UK announces September inflation and retail sales. Japan releases September trade and inflation data. China reports Q3 2021 GDP growth as well as September industrial production and retail sales.