Fisher Investments recaps the biggest market, political and economic news from last week, including US jobless claims, eurozone core consumer prices and Chinese money supply.
Global equities were relatively flat amid sparse economic data releases.
In the US, September retail sales increased 1.9% m/m, handily beating expectations. September core consumer prices (excluding food and energy) rose 1.7% y/y, matching consensus estimates. Industrial production declined 0.6% m/m and 7.3% y/y in September, missing expectations. Initial jobless claims rose by 898,000 in the week ending October 10, more than forecast.
In the eurozone, September core consumer prices (excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) rose 0.2% y/y, confirming the initial reading. August industrial production increased 0.7% m/m but fell 7.2% y/y, both in line with estimates. In the UK, the unemployment rate for the three months ending in August increased to 4.5%, above expectations.
In China, September consumer prices rose 1.7% y/y, below expectations. September exports grew 9.9% y/y, below estimates, while imports increased 13.2% y/y, more than forecast. Money supply (M2) and total lending rose 10.9% y/y and 13% y/y, respectively, in September. In Japan, August industrial production was revised down to 1.0% m/m compared to the 1.7% initial estimate. Bank lending rose 6.4% y/y in September.
The Week Ahead:
The US, eurozone, UK and Japan report preliminary October purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs). The Conference Board releases its US Leading Economic Index reading for September. The UK announces September inflation and retail sales. Japan releases September trade and inflation data. China reports Q3 2020 GDP growth as well as September industrial production and retail sales.
Sources for all data cited are FactSet and Trading Economics. This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses the maximum rate applicable to non-resident institutional investors who do not benefit from double taxation treaties. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A risk of loss is involved with investments in stock markets.