In another volatile week, global equities ended flat amid mixed economic data. In the US, September economic data were mixed. Retail sales increased 4.7% y/y. Industrial production grew 0.3% m/m, while manufacturing production grew 0.2% m/m. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) increased 0.5% m/m, in line with forecasts.
European data were largely positive. In the eurozone, September core consumer prices (excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) rose 0.9% y/y, in line with expectations. August eurozone imports and exports rose 8.4% y/y and 5.6% y/y, respectively. In the UK, September retail sales fell 0.8% m/m, missing expectations, but increased 3.0% y/y. September core consumer prices rose 1.9% y/y. The UK August unemployment rate held steady at 4.0%, matching estimates.
In Asia, economic data were mixed. Japanese September core consumer prices (excluding fresh food) rose 1.0% y/y, meeting forecasts. Imports grew 7.0% y/y, while exports fell 1.2% y/y in September, both missing expectations. August industrial production grew 0.2% y/y, also missing forecasts. In China, September retail sales increased 9.2% y/y, ahead of expectations. September industrial production grew 5.8% y/y, missing expectations. September consumer prices rose 2.5% y/y, matching estimates. Q3 2018 GDP increased 6.5% y/y, marking its weakest quarterly growth figure since 2008. However, China remains on track to meet its full year 6.5% growth target.
The US and eurozone release preliminary September manufacturing and services Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs). The US releases the first estimate of Q3 2018 GDP and September wholesale inventories. The eurozone announces September money supply (M3) and loan growth. Japanese reports include the Nikkei Manufacturing PMI and September retail sales.
Source for all data cited is FactSet. This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses a Luxembourg tax basis. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A risk of loss is involved with investments in stock markets.