Fisher Investments recaps the biggest market, political and economic news from last week, including US, UK, eurozone and Japan September Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) readings, US Leading Economic Index and Japanese August inflation data.
In the US, the September Markit Flash Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) fell to 60.5 and 54.4—both missing expectations but still indicating expansion. August new home sales rose 1.5% m/m, beating the consensus forecast. The Conference Board’s August Leading Economic Index (LEI) increased 0.9% from the prior month—better than expected. The Federal Reserve left monetary policy unchanged.
In the eurozone, the September Markit Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs fell to 58.7 and 56.3—both less than forecasted. In the UK, the September Markit/CIPS Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs missed expectations—coming in at 56.3 and 54.6. The Bank of England left monetary policy unchanged. Many pundits are increasingly trying to ascertain the trajectory of various central banks’ respective monetary policies. However, we caution investors against putting too much weight into central bankers’ forecasts or guidance. In our view, trying to predict central bankers’ actions based on a myriad of shifting variables seems like an unnecessary exercise. For more, please see our 9/21/2021 commentary, “Don’t Put Too Much Stock in Central Banks’ Forecasts.”
In Japan, the September Jibun Bank Flash Services PMI surpassed expectations, coming in at 47.4, while the September Jibun Bank Flash Manufacturing PMI came in at 51.2—slightly below estimates. August core-core consumer prices fell 0.5% y/y. The Bank of Japan left monetary policy unchanged.
The Week Ahead:
The US and UK announce their third and second estimates of Q2 2021 GDP, respectively. The US, UK and eurozone report final September manufacturing PMI figures. The US also reports August durable goods orders. The eurozone reports September inflation data and August money supply (M3) growth. Japan releases August retail sales and industrial production figures. China reports September manufacturing PMI data.
Source for all data cited is FactSet. This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses the maximum rate applicable to non-resident institutional investors who do not benefit from double taxation treaties. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A risk of loss is involved with investments in stock markets.