Daily Commentary

MarketMinder’s View: Central banker speculation isn’t just a US (or even Western) pastime. In Japan, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s government nominated two academics considered to be “reflationists” (i.e., policymakers who favor fiscal and monetary policy to boost demand)—supposedly harkening back to the late Shinzo Abe’s “Abenomics” economic program. Observers presume these nominees are against the Bank of Japan’s gradual interest rate hikes and will favor an easing approach. The evidence: One nominee talked about proactive fiscal policy at a past Liberal Democratic Party meeting while the other gave a lecture in 2023 extolling the benefits of a weak yen. But just as with the Fed, Bank of England and European Central Bank, whatever you think of these concepts or theories, don’t treat what people have said in the past as a roadmap for how they will act when they become a central banker. We reckon Japanese central bankers take “Martin’s little pill” as well, seemingly forgetting their prior views. Moreover, should the appointees receive the Diet’s approval, they will be two of nine BoJ Policy Board members. Like the Fed, the BoJ determines monetary policy via committee, so even if these two appointees behave as experts assume they will, they won’t be able to determine policy on their own. And public pressure has been pretty negative toward Japan’s recent trend of rising prices, which could give these “reflationists” pause, to say nothing of the others on the board.

MarketMinder’s View: The European Commission’s monthly eurozone economic confidence gauge weakened this month, as the headline index dipped from January’s 99.3 to 98.3 (disappointing the consensus, which expected a rise to 99.8). The subcomponents were mixed: While services and industrial providers’ confidence dipped, consumer and retailers’ sentiment improved (though both readings remained negative). The economist interviewed here said January’s relatively upbeat results made February’s disappointment less of a concern, anticipating economic sentiment to improve over the course of 2026. We agree moods are warming across the pond, though sentiment is coming off a much lower base compared to the US (where fear has returned to a degree). Lower expectations toward the eurozone are a big reason why we think non-US markets are likely to lead this year—more wall of worry to climb.

MarketMinder’s View: For all of AI’s benefits, bad actors can use the technology for harmful purposes. The latest tactic explored here: Fraudsters claiming to be from the IRS and offering to “help” unsuspecting folks with “unresolved” tax issues. What makes this particular scam so insidious is the use of real people’s voices, more natural-sounding scripts and application of personal data—which makes the fraud sound legitimate. “If the message contains real information, such as the last four digits of your Social Security number, you might be inclined to believe that you are actually communicating with the IRS. Here’s what’s really scary about the use of AI. Criminals can target more people even faster using ‘vishing’ (voice phishing) techniques that involve making phone calls or leaving messages that pretend to be from a government agency or a reputable company. AI bots can run thousands of concurrent vishing calls, adapting their scripts in real time based on how you answer the phone.” The simplest defense: hang up on these calls, as the article recommends, and don’t respond to voicemail. Remember, the IRS won’t text or email you without your permission, and if you have actual tax problems it will send you a snail-mail letter first, so treat any unexpected communication skeptically.